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Topic: Air Warfare, and Land Warfare Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Europe Tags: Baltic States, Eastern Europe, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Northern Europe, Russia, and Wargaming Russia Could Occupy the Baltics in 90 Days—Without Sending in a Single Soldier April 15, 2026 By: Stavros Atlamazoglou
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A new war game by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a Lithuanian think tank, suggests that Russia could drive the Baltic states to capitulate merely by bombarding them with missiles and drones.
Could Russia really invade and conquer the Baltic states before NATO could arrive to support them?
A new analysis by a Baltic think tank suggests that the answer is an overwhelming yes. Moreover, Russian forces would be able to do so in only around 90 days—and potentially without any Russian troops actually crossing the border.
How Russia Could Pound the Baltic into Submission
Most “war games” involving the Baltic states and Russia are predicated on a conventional land conflict. It is assumed that the Russian Army will conduct a large-scale invasion of the three Baltic states from Russia proper, Belarus, and the Russian exclave at Kaliningrad along the Baltic Sea—quickly overwhelming the small nations’ defenses before NATO can react, and presenting their seizure to the rest of the alliance as a fait accompli. If Russia can complete its occupation before the rest of Europe could mobilize forces to stop it, the other NATO nations would need to make the choice between accepting the loss of the Baltic states and starting a major land war in Europe—with potentially catastrophic consequences.
However, the Baltic Defense Initiative (BDI), a Lithuanian think tank, envisions an alternative scenario by which the three Baltic countries could fall under Russian control. Based on a fictional scenario taking place in 2027 and drawing operational lessons from the US military’s involvement in Iran during Operation Epic Fury, the BDI assessed that the Kremlin could reconquer the Baltic states next year without the need for any ground troop involvement whatsoever.
The BDI’s scenario starts with the premise that Marine Le Pen, the Euroskeptic leader of France’s National Rally party and the runner-up in France’s last two presidential elections, is elected president in 2027 and withdraws France’s nuclear umbrella from NATO. In the scenario, the United States is also still embroiled in Iran, having fought there for the last 18 months and depleted its arsenal of long-range munitions against determined Iranian resistance.
Taking advantage of these strategic developments, the scenario goes, the Kremlin launches a massive long-range fires attack on the Baltics, involving hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles, as well as over 170,000 one-way unmanned aerial systems over a period of 60 days. The Russian attack destroys “every bridge, every power plant, every hospital, every water treatment facility” in the region, plunging Lithuania—a country of 2.8 million and roughly the size of West Virginia—into the dark, with no heat and a harsh winter approaching.
“On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept Russian occupation—or Riga and Tallinn are next,” the scenario concludes.
Accordingly, the three Baltic countries capitulate, without the need for any Russian soldier to actually cross the border.
According to the analysts, the war games used verified weapon system capabilities, observed production rates of munitions, and documented political trends.
“[The scenario] is a stress test of Lithuanian defense posture—not a prediction of Russian intent,” the BDI wrote. “The purpose is to expose specific vulnerabilities—centralized government, empty interceptor stocks, single-point energy infrastructure, alliance dependence—so that each can be addressed before the political conditions make this scenario executable.”
The Baltics are not new to Russian aggression. In 1940, they were invaded and annexed by the Soviet Union, only gaining independence after its collapse in 1991. Revanchists within Russia have periodically proposed retaking them—leading to frosty relations between the three small countries and their far larger eastern neighbor.
Though NATO membership has given the Baltic states some measure of security against the Kremlin, they nevertheless sit on the alliance’s eastern flank and have to live with the long-term threat of Russian hostility.
War Games Don’t Always Match Reality—Look at Ukraine
It should be noted, however, that the war games are not always correct.
In the case of the Baltic war game, although France might not help, that does not mean that the other NATO and European countries would not rush to the aid of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. If the war in Ukraine has shown anything, it is that European solidarity, particularly in defense matters, is real.
Indeed, unquantifiable factors such as these—moral outrage over naked territorial ambition, allied resolve against the Kremlin, and Ukrainian patriotism and determination to resist a foreign invader—have all given Ukraine an unexpected edge against its numerically superior opponent.
Russian military planners certainly studied a potential large-scale invasion of Ukraine through wargaming before 2022. On paper, Russia’s strength was overwhelming, and the war game likely reflected a quick Russian victory. Accordingly, military officers and intelligence officials advised Russian President Vladimir Putin that a “special military operation” against the neighboring country would result in a Ukrainian capitulation within a few days or weeks.
To put it mildly, the reality has been somewhat different. In February, the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year—exceeding the length of Russia’s participation in World War II.
The Department of Defense also holds frequent war games to test out potential operational scenarios. And although these war games take into account many variables and test a multitude of different strategic options, they do not necessarily represent the course and outcome a conflict might take.
Nevertheless, in spite of their imperfections, war games are an excellent opportunity to understand potential capability shortcomings and mend them before they become operational failures.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
The post Russia Could Occupy the Baltics in 90 Days—Without Sending in a Single Soldier appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org