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Topic: Air Warfare, and Diplomacy Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: Iran, Iran Protests, Israel, Israel-Iran War, and Russia Why Are Russian Diplomats Quietly Fleeing Israel? January 15, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
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Amid ongoing mass protests in Iran, Russia appears to believe that a large-scale strike on Israel is imminent.
Beginning around January 8, Russia began quietly evacuating its diplomats and their families from Israel. No reason was given for the evacuations—but it came as anti-regime protests exploded across Iran, and calls for regime change erupted in major American and Israeli cities as well.
Russia Is Afraid of Something Happening in Israel
An obvious question follows. Why is Russia removing its staff from Israel if the crisis is happening in Iran?
While this is speculative, it is important to understand the relationship between Iran and Russia. For decades, the Russians have viewed Iran as a key partner for Moscow’s power projection into the Greater Middle East. As Russian scholar Dimitri Trenin wrote a decade ago, Russia places the Greater Middle East as a core interest. In other words, Russia is heavily invested in the survival of the Iranian Islamist regime as a proxy. Accordingly, financial support, technical assistance—notably in the case of missile technology—intelligence sharing, and diplomatic cover have been the hallmarks of Russia’s relationship with Iran.
Moscow, through Russia’s state-run nuclear agency, Rosatom, assisted in the construction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Russian air defenses ring key targets inside Iran—though whether that will ultimately help the Iranians defend against future American or Israeli airstrikes remains very much in question, particularly given those same systems’ failure in Venezuela weeks prior.
The Russo-Iran relationship is closer and more complex than many in Washington understand. While it is unlikely Russia would wage war on behalf of Iran, or send troops to prop up the clerical regime, it is probable that Moscow would have no compunction about giving advanced weapons to Iran—and blessing a potential massive Iranian strike on Israel. Even without direct Russian aid, the Iranians have spent years building up their missile, hypersonic weapons, and drone arsenals. These weapons are advanced and can reach Israel.
The only thing stopping these weapons from reaching and destroying critical targets inside Israel are air defenses that operate not only in Israel, but around US military bases between Iran and Israel, along with air defense networks belonging to Israel’s Arab neighbors.
Israel Isn’t Invulnerable to Missile Attack
Israel is the beneficiary of a regional air defense cordon backed by the world’s sole remaining superpower, the United States. Yet even that has its limits.
Since the 12-Day War last summer, the Israelis and Americans have been brushing up against those limits. This is especially true in the arena of air defenses.
Last year, Israeli military officials spoke on condition of anonymity with the Israeli press about their fears that the Iranians had forced Israel to expend more air defense interceptors than they could replace. And through aid to Ukraine, the Americans have been depleting their critical stockpiles of air defense ammunition at a faster rate than they can be reliably replaced.
Israel’s Sunni Shield Is Cracking
As the Israeli-Gaza conflict rages, the Arab community has become offended by what it perceives as the mistreatment of the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza. This has led to real political backlash from within the Arab states that Israel has long relied upon to act as the outer cordon of air defenses protecting the Jewish democracy from the wrath of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have asked the Americans to refrain from striking Iran as the Americans did last summer. Meanwhile, the Arab states form new alliances with each other—and outside powers, like Pakistan and Turkey—that are clearly aimed at stunting Israeli power in the region. And we don’t know how strong the Arab states’ air defenses are, considering they, too, expended a great deal of ammunition defending Israel the last time around from Iranian reprisals.
With the Americans struggling with depleting critical defensive stockpiles, and the Israelis clearly struggling to maintain adequate levels of air defense readiness; as the Sunni Arabs clearly back away from both the Israeli and, to a lesser extent, the Americans…this leaves a major opening for Iran to punch back at Israel, hard. And Russia’s hasty departure from the scene—no doubt tipped off by Tehran—could serve as an early warning.
Israel’s Worst-Case Scenario Isn’t Nuclear
Whether the Iranian Islamist regime collapses is irrelevant at this point.
Just judging off the sheer volume of missiles, hypersonic weapons, and drones that the Iranians have under their command, Tehran could order the mother-of-all swarming attacks that swamp missile defenses in the region and level the economic corridors in Tel Aviv and Haifa, for instance.
The Israelis, despite the chest-thumping from Jerusalem, must realize that the chances of such a disastrous outcome are not insignificant, especially if the Iranian regime is about to fall. Even if it doesn’t fall, it is going to hit back far more comprehensively than it ever has before simply because it will want to restore the security situation in its favor. Even setting aside the issue of nuclear weapons—which Iran may be able to build on short notice—a swarm of hypersonic weapons, long-range conventional missiles, and drones could do far more damage to Israel (and US bases in the region) than was ever previously done.
Which leads us back to the mysterious exit of those Russian diplomats and their families from Israel. It is quite likely that, if Iran is planning their own “Samson Option” against Israel, then the Russians wanted to get their citizens out before all hell broke loose over Israel.
We should know soon enough what outcome Israel will face: either a gruesome reprisal they were not yet anticipating from Iran, or the regime is, in fact, swept away and things are looking much better strategically for Israel. We’ll soon see.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Jose HERNANDEZ Camera 51.
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Источник: nationalinterest.org