«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»
Topic: Diplomacy Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and United States The New Axis Rewriting the Middle East—Without Washington January 15, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
Share
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have quietly formed a political and military alliance—and are likely to be far more influential in the Middle East’s future than the United States.
The Middle Eastern order as the United States understood is gone. Everyone there knows it. To some degree, Washington probably recognizes this, too. But it cannot let on that the jig is up.
The Israel-Gaza War has completely destabilized the region after decades of greater destabilization brought about, thanks to feckless American actions and the long-term fallout from the “Arab Spring” protests.
The Middle East America Knew is Gone
As the old US-backed order has crumbled into dust, the various powers now move to sweep its remnants away.
Sure, the Americans are primed for major military action against the clearly dying Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel has managed to avoid the worst potential outcomes from its nearly ceaseless multi-front war against Hamas in Gaza, Palestinian discontents in the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the now-deposed Assad regime in Syria, the distant Houthis, and the Iranians.
But geopolitics isn’t about only surviving. It’s about shaping the region to one’s own strategic interests and political will for the greatest benefit. Thus far, Israel is more isolated in the region than it was before the grotesque October 7 terrorist attacks and the Americans, despite the maintaining of military bases throughout the region, is a hollow force just looking to get out of the area.
The Gaza War Has Exposed the New Middle East Order
Because of these fundamentally changing dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are forming a coalition. It is obvious that this coalition is designed to perform two major geopolitical functions in the near-and-medium terms. First, the bloc intends to deter an Israel that these powers believe is increasingly unhinged. Second, it wishes to coalesce in a big enough bloc so that these powers can better shape a vastly different Middle East—one with a new, friendly government in Iran, and Israel as a South Africa-like pariah state.
Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly the cultural epicenter of the Arab Muslim world. It is also one of the wealthiest, thanks to the abundant oil and natural gas that today sits beneath the scorching sands of the country. For years, it has relied upon the military power of Pakistan to better protect Saudi interests (indeed, the Saudi Armed Forces routinely commission Pakistani officers in their ranks rather than force their own male citizens to serve). Recently, Riyadh and Islamabad announced a defense pact that would formally place Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.
Shortly thereafter, the Turks entered a triple alliance with the two countries. Turkey, on top of being a NATO member, is one of the most militarily powerful countries in the world. It is quickly rising to become a key middle power in the budding multipolar system, too. And Turkey’s leaders have grand designs to restore the long-lost Ottoman Empire, in spirit if not in name.
All this is to say that the locals are both going their own way and clearly preparing to coordinate the birth of a new regional order. It will be an order that is decidedly less pro-American, likely isolates Israel, and empowers on some level the Islamist elements that have been at war with the United States for decades.
Osama bin Laden’s Vision Is Coming to Life
In his last book, the controversial former CIA Bin Laden Unit chief cautioned his readers that, even with jihadist mastermind Osama bin Laden dead, his vision for the Middle East was coming true.
Bin Laden’s vision, after all, was to see the Muslim world run by a unitary, pan-Islamic political unit. Until 1923, that unit was the Ottoman Empire. Those days are long gone. But they could return—whether the new “caliphate” takes religious or purely political trappings.
In recent years, Turkey has made decisive steps toward exerting greater control in the Middle East. Should its regional competitors, such as Iran and Israel, annihilate each other (or at least drastically weaken each other), and if America’s position in the region further erodes—with an alliance between the Saudis and Pakistanis—Turkey just might fulfill its great ambition.
Of course, the comparison falls flat in some areas. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the sultan-like president of Turkey, is not the second coming of bin Laden, whatever his other shortcomings. But the ruling party of Turkey is much closer to the Islamist worldview than not. What’s more, key leaders of the ruling AKP Party in Turkey have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the umbrella group for Islamist fundamentalist organizations around the world. And the point is that the region has been lost to the Americans.
Whatever comes next, despite all the money and lives expended these last 20 years, the region is decisively shifting away from the US and Israel and toward something very different.
The new Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish axis is just yet another sign of how seriously everything has changed since 2001.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Sasa Dzambic Photography.
The post The New Axis Rewriting the Middle East—Without Washington appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org