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Topic: Air Warfare Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: Donald Trump, Iran, Israel, Israel-Iran War, Missiles, Regime Change, and United States The Israel-Iran Missile Game Could Drag America Back into War January 2, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
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In anticipation of another conflict, Israel has urged the United States to support an invasion of Iran to overthrow the Islamic Republic. President Trump should demur.
It looks like the Middle East is getting ready to go ballistic again. At a recent meeting with his Israeli counterpart, President Donald Trump affirmed his support for a renewed round of airstrikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This comes at a time when the Israeli government is calling for the people of Iran to rise up against their blighted regime—and shortly after the Americans authorized the sale of 25 F-15IA warplanes to the Israeli Air Force (IAF).
The Middle East Is Heating Up—Again
The provocation this time comes from Iran’s continued ballistic missile tests. Those missiles are a key component of Iran’s overarching nuclear weapons program, which the Israelis and a succession of US administrations believe to be serious threats to their interests and national security.
For Israel, an Iranian nuclear weapons program is an existential threat. For America, that threat is real, too, although there remains a question as to whether the Iranians are keen to initiate a war with Uncle Sam over that matter.
Regardless, this is the backstory behind the suddenly renewed round of tensions. And it is the ballistic missile program that has again roped the 47th US president into another Mideast quagmire-in-waiting.
Israel and Iran Are Preparing for Another Round of War
In June, Trump threaded the needle by launching a chicken run against suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facilities whilst avoiding a full-blown US war with Iran.
Another round of Israeli strikes will ensure that the Americans get roped into that fight—and the fighting might not be so confined as it was the last time. That’s because the Iranians have reconfigured their defenses.
In fact, by the end of the 12-Day War in June between Israel and Iran, the whole reason the Trump administration intervened at all was because the war started turning against Israel. Trump essentially had to bail the Israelis out and get a reprieve due to the significant adaptations the Iranians had made over the course of that conflict.
Today, there are real concerns that the Israelis have not fully replenished their stockpile of missile interceptors. Yes, Israel’s air defenses are vaunted. Their Iron Dome and similar systems are legendary—and they have saved many lives—but these systems are limited in their range, scale, and capacity.
Iran and their proxies, such as Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah, have all perfected techniques for swarming those defenses with drones and missiles. In so doing, they deplete the defensive systems around sensitive Israeli targets. Then they fire more missiles and drones that cannot be stopped as the air defenses are empty.
Contrary to the official narrative, major Israeli cities, like Tel Aviv, suffered immensely under the bombardment in retaliation for Israel’s strikes against Iran during the 12-Day War. Iran has learned hard lessons from the last round of fighting and applied those lessons learned. They are now preparing to fight with much more lethality than what the Israeli defenses can handle.
Why Jerusalem Is Now Betting on Regime Change
So Israeli leaders are widening the scope of their calls—notably with their fixation on getting the Iranian people to overthrow the regime in Tehran. Jerusalem cannot settle for anything less than full regime change in Iran. Ultimately, if the Iranian people do not do it themselves, it will need American military assistance. This is doubly so if the Iranians manage to put together a truly comprehensive strike against Israeli targets.
Trump’s presidency skirted being sucked into another Middle East quagmire the way his predecessors were goaded into them. If he’s not careful, though, the geopolitical quicksand of the Middle East will rope him back in and destroy his presidency.
The only sure pathway forward is one that maximizes diplomacy and restores deterrence. While they may be dead now, one can still hold out hope that the Abraham Accords, the signature diplomatic agreement from Trump’s first term in office, can be reconstituted and restored.
Otherwise, a total breakdown of whatever is left of the regional order is at hand.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Davidi Vardi.
The post The Israel-Iran Missile Game Could Drag America Back into War appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org