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Topic: Air Warfare Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Europe Tags: Defense Industry, Fighter Jets, GCAP, Italy, NATO, and Sixth-Generation Aircraft Italy’s GCAP Program Is Turning into a Financial Nightmare January 27, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
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Italy’s contribution to the GCAP sixth-gen fighter program has ballooned from €6 billion to more than €18 billion—with little to show for it.
As the craze surrounding the sixth-generation stealth warplane continues at breakneck speeds, with both China and the United States leading this race, a tri-national effort in Europe (consisting of the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan) is also in the running.
Italy in particular is fully behind this program. Headlines around the world have run galore with claims that the Italians are building the most expensive sixth-generation warplane ever made. And the Europeans clearly believe that this gives them some cachet.
In fact, the reality is precisely backward. Europe is attempting to build the world’s most expensive warplane—and this is precisely why its plane is unlikely to ever take flight.
GCAP: Europe’s Attempt to Stay Relevant
Known as the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), this system is billed as the successor to platforms like the iconic Eurofighter Typhoon and the Japanese Mitsubishi F-2. It’s meant to field next-generation warplanes with manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) “wingmen,” advanced sensors, artificial intelligence (AI), and networking technologies by roughly 2035.
Like the Chinese sixth-generation warplane development model, this is meant to be more than just another warplane. It is designed to be a “system of systems.”
Italy’s projected financial contribution to GCAP’s early design and development phases has risen drastically since the start of the program. For example, Defense News highlights that the original 2021 estimate for Italy’s involvement (Phase I) was around €6 billion, that’s the concept and preliminary design plus the full development component of the project (Phase II). Yet the 2026 estimate is around €18.6 billion, according to official reports that have been given to the Italian parliament as part of a request to authorize long-term funding.
Accordingly, GCAP is truly Italy’s most expensive military program—not just in modern times, but in all the history of Italian military aviation!
The trouble is that Italy today does not have the economic heft to support such a gargantuan bill…for a warplane that is so complex that it might never really make it into service due to those exorbitant development costs. Not only that, but the costs that will be incurred from high maintenance are key to account for, too.
The GCAP Is Costlier Than Italy’s Entire F-35 Fleet
For example, Caliber, an Azerbaijan-based defense news website, posits that the expanded price tag for the GCAP now surpasses Italy’s total spending on the F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation warplane program—which was around €18 billion for 90 warplanes. Keep in mind, these figures are before procurement, operations, and the aforementioned maintenance costs are ever factored in. So, Italy is now talking about spending orders of magnitude more than the current increased price its parliament is being given.
The new funding request is complex. Already around €2 billion has been allocated (and spent) on the concept work and the preliminary design of the proposed GCAP warplane. But the GCAP project needs an additional €16.6 billion.
The Hidden Monster: Sustainment and Maintenance Costs
Of that, €8.8 billion is needed to make what can only be described as staggered, or phased, payments that run from 2026 through 2037. That leaves around €7.8 billion which will be released to the GCAP project at an unspecified later date.
Naturally, many Italians are upset with these developments. Populist parties like the Five Star Movement (M5S) have attacked the large increase in price, and are rightly demanding greater transparency and further justification for the spending increase before Italy’s parliament signs off.
Too bad for the Italian taxpayers that the current government in Italy looks like it will have to vote to push the spending increases through their parliament with little effort.
Industrial Policy vs. Military Reality
Euronews assesses that the Italian government wants to remain involved in the GCAP program for the sake of their aerospace industry. Home to some of the world’s most impressive aerospace firms, like Leonardo, it is believed that if Italy remains a key partner in the GCAP program, the Italians will ensure their domestic aerospace industry remains competitive globally.
Then again, the critics of Italy’s involvement rightly posit that the financial risk and opportunity costs relative to other defense priorities make Italy’s involvement in GCAP self-defeating.
GCAP is a trilateral European defense initiative aimed at ensuring European and allied airpower autonomy. At a time when the Americans are clearly abandoning their outposts in Europe, and with the Russians appearing to be on the march, Europe feels that it has been left in the cold without much help.
Most European states have pledged to increase their defense spending and to invest in new capabilities that would make them better able to deter what they believe will be Russian aggression.
With price tags like the GCAP, an entirely conceptual plane at this point, it is simply hard to believe that this warplane will ever be viable. Like so much of what the Europeans do in the defense arena, the ambitions underlying the GCAP project are lofty. But the GCAP will be an ephemeral project that ultimately saps already-burdened Italian taxpayers and ultimately produces a subpar product.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Flight Video and Photo.
The post Italy’s GCAP Program Is Turning into a Financial Nightmare appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org