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A trade war will cause a lot of damage, but many have weathered storms before

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If anyone thought that the long weekend for the Qingming festival, when Chinese people sweep the graves of their ancestors, might mean a lowering of temperatures in China’s stand-off with Donald Trump over tariffs, they have been starkly disabused. China had responded immediately on April 4th to Mr Trump’s escalation, promising to match his additional 34% increase with 34% tariffs of their own. Then on April 8th, the commerce ministry accused America of “blackmail”, after Mr Trump threatened a further 50% tariff on all Chinese goods if China did not back down.

“If the US proceeds with implementing these escalated tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests,” a ministry spokesperson said. “If the US insists on going its own way, China will fight to the end.” Those ancestors might have felt a twinge of pride at such fighting talk. But the consequences for both sides, and for millions of Chinese workers, could be dire.

Still, some 1,200 miles south of Beijing, where the rubber hits the soles of a million shoes, the mood in the factories of Fujian province is surprisingly sanguine. Huge malls, known as “shoe cities”, and streets around the city of Quanzhou are draped in everything needed to make shoes, from reams of fabrics spilling out of shopfronts, to plastic soles displayed alongside laces of every colour.

Fujian accounts for nearly one quarter of China’s shoe exports, bound primarily for North America and Europe. Mr Trump’s tariffs are top of the minds of workers in the city of Quanzhou, home to more than 3,000 footwear firms, including Anta, a sportswear giant.

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Many shoe manufacturers had been thinking ahead, and stopped taking new American orders after Mr Trump was elected in November, says Mr Ding, a shoe-leather supplier in town. They knew tariffs might be coming and did not want to be locked into contracts that would result in losses.

Mr Ding’s leather sales are down as a result, at least 70% this year, largely due to the loss of his customers’ American orders. While the burden of lower tariffs in the past could be divided along the supply chain, the American tariff wall is now far too high to scale, he says. “You have to endure this period of pain and see who can persevere to the end.” Some manufacturers felt that many would not make it.

Tariffs imposed by Mr Trump in his first term led many Chinese manufacturers to shift some production to South-East Asia, sending materials from Quanzhou for final processing. That led to more than a third of all Vietnam’s footwear being shipped to America. But that loophole looks set to close, as America has hit Vietnam with a 46% tariff rate. (It is looking to cut a deal with America.) Ms Wu, an insole maker, said she recently made a sample for a friend in Vietnam who expected an order of 60,000, but that deal disappeared after the announcement of the tariff hike.

With few other export options available, some are looking within China’s own borders. Only about a quarter of the shoemakers Mr Ding serves sell to Chinese consumers, and the domestic market is saturated. “We have to see whether domestic demand can take off,” he says, noting that these days people may buy a pair of shoes every two years instead of one. “No one has any business or any money, so they dare not consume.”

The same price wars that afflict many of the country’s competitive industries mean there is little room on already-thin margins. By the end of last year’s third quarter, nearly a quarter of China’s listed firms were losing money. That is more than double the number five years ago. Mr Zhang, who makes a few million shoes in a good year in Quanzhou, is not in the red yet. But since entering the industry eight years ago, he has seen the profit on a pair of shoes drop from 30 yuan to less than ten yuan.

State media’s projection of confidence in the face of Mr Trump’s tariffs has persuaded some of its frustrated manufacturers. “The Chinese government will find a way forward,” says Ms Wu. “I believe in them.” And even those who are not looking to the government appear surprisingly upbeat. Many of the shoemakers have weathered storms before, including during Mr Trump’s first term and the pandemic. Mr Ding offers the ever practical advice of a man who has seen a few business cycles. “If you don’t have any orders, you should basically consider taking a holiday in the second half of the year.”

Some will do exactly that. They can only drop their prices by dozens of cents or one yuan at most if they are to still pay employees and factory rent, says Mr Zhang. He is trying to court more domestic customers, but prefers foreign orders that come with less risk of customers owing cash. “I’m still confused and not sure what to do,” he says. ■

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Источник: www.economist.com