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“Restrainers” are taking over from “primacists”
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Even before Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil, it was hard to discern a clear China strategy. With decisions depending largely on presidential whim, his foreign-policy advisers seemed to have split into warring tribes. To use a shorthand common in Washington, the “primacists” seek to re-establish America’s dominance in the world, taking on all threats; the “prioritisers” think America can handle only China and should abandon Ukraine; and the “restrainers” want to focus on only the homeland, avoiding future wars. Since April 2nd Mr Trump’s trade war has sown further confusion. But whatever his own views, one thing seems increasingly clear: conventional China hawks, whether primacists or prioritisers, are losing ground in the battle for influence.
Though overshadowed by the trade drama, among the strongest indications of this trend was the firing or reassignment of six National Security Council (nsc) officials, which became public on April 3rd. That was apparently prompted by Laura Loomer, a right-wing conspiracy theorist who met Mr Trump a day earlier. Ms Loomer said the officials were “disloyal people” who helped to sabotage Mr Trump. Yet her demands seem to align closely with those of the restrainers (including Donald Trump junior) who want to root out “neocons” bent on provoking war with China.
One of those sacked was David Feith, the nsc’s senior director for technology. He was in some ways a symbolic target. His father, Douglas, was one of the original neocons. As a Pentagon official, he helped to plan the invasion of Iraq in 2003. But the younger Mr Feith was also among the White House’s most experienced China specialists, having worked in the State Department through Mr Trump’s first term and helped to create his Indo-Pacific Strategy, which advocated upgrading American alliances. As a think-tanker after that, he argued for tougher China policies.
On the nsc he handled issues that included American tech exports to China and the proposed sale of TikTok to a non-Chinese owner. In that role he appears to have built on many Biden-era initiatives, while also taking up new ones, including the America First Investment Policy. This identified Russia and China as “adversaries” and broadened curbs on investment in China. Whether his views on policy contributed to his sacking is unclear but, former colleagues say, it is a win for the isolationists and a loss of China expertise.
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The future of two other China hawks—Ivan Kanapathy, the nsc’s senior director for Asia, and Alex Wong, the deputy national security adviser—is also now in doubt. Ms Loomer accused Mr Kanapathy of working previously with Trump critics, and attacked Mr Wong and his wife over their Chinese heritage and her previous work as a lawyer. Although both officials have kept their jobs, they have been weakened by the broadside and by the waning authority of their boss, Mike Waltz, the national security adviser (another wing-clipped China hawk).
Officials in China and Taiwan will be watching Mr Kanapathy closely, as he is seen as one of the island’s staunchest supporters in the White House. He served as military attaché to America’s representative office in Taiwan from 2014 to 2017, and contributed to a book on Taiwan’s defence in 2024 that was edited by Matt Pottinger, the nsc’s Asia chief in Mr Trump’s first term. Mr Kanapathy met Taiwan’s president last year with Mr Pottinger, who resigned over the attack on the Capitol on January 6th 2021 and has since called for policies aimed at encouraging political change in China.
How this affects America’s dealings with China is unclear. Mr Trump has not expressed his preferences beyond trade, and may be unaware of the battles over policy among his staff. But one potential consequence is that it gets harder for China hawks to push things through without him noticing, as they did in his first term. Some see their fingerprints on recent changes, including firmer joint statements with allies opposing Chinese coercion of Taiwan and the removal from the State Department’s website of a commitment not to support the island’s independence.
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Restrainer retrainer
The balance may be shifting in the Pentagon, too. Pete Hegseth, the inexperienced defence secretary, reassured America’s Asian allies by echoing many of President Joe Biden’s commitments during his first regional tour in March. But that was probably because the Trump administration has yet to work out its military priorities in Asia. Those could become clearer after the Senate’s confirmation on April 8th of Elbridge Colby as undersecretary of defence for policy, the Pentagon’s number-three post and one expected to play a critical role in guiding Mr Hegseth.
Mr Colby has been the most vocal advocate of prioritising China. Former colleagues say he is committed to that goal (including Taiwan’s defence) and well qualified for his Pentagon post. Though not a career China specialist, he worked in the Pentagon in Mr Trump’s first term, developing a National Defence Strategy identifying China and Russia as primary adversaries. He then founded a think-tank and wrote a book, both of which advocate combating Chinese hegemony in Asia.
Even so, he has sounded more like a restrainer of late, saying that Taiwan is not an “existential” issue for America and should increase its defence spending to (an unrealistic) 10% of gdp, from under 3% now. He has also argued that South Korea, an ally, should do more to defend itself. Such remarks have earned him public backing from Vice-President J.D. Vance and the junior Mr Trump, who said recently that Mr Colby supported the president’s desire to negotiate with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, to avoid “poking the dragon in the eye unnecessarily” and to seek a “balance of power with China that avoids war”.
Mr Colby’s change of tune may have been politically savvy, but it has unnerved some in American and allied defence circles who hear echoes of Mr Trump’s views on Europe. They worry that the president, who has little personal regard for Taiwan, might be open to a deal with Mr Xi that compromises its security in exchange for trade concessions from China and deference to other American interests in Asia. Others doubt Mr Trump can stick to any coherent China strategy, considering his tariffs on Asian allies and the recent redeployment of an aircraft-carrier and missile-defence systems from Asia to the Middle East.
The State Department seems to have a limited say on China despite the hawkish views of Marco Rubio, the secretary of state. Michael Anton, his policy-planning chief, has argued that America should not defend Taiwan. Some top China hands recently retired early. And the nominee for the top post covering East Asia and the Pacific is Michael DeSombre, a lawyer whose only diplomatic experience was a year as ambassador to Thailand.
Such personnel changes have not gone unnoticed in China. Researchers there who study America and advise the leadership believe that the first Trump administration was strongly influenced by China hawks in the nsc, Pentagon and State Department. Hawks in the current administration are weak by comparison, said Meng Weizhan of Fudan University in a recent commentary. He expects it to become increasingly hardline on technology and trade, but less so on ideology and military matters as it focuses on domestic revival.
None of this will ultimately decide Mr Trump’s China strategy. Judging by the past few weeks, that will depend largely on his own impulses, which can quickly change. But who manages relationships and day-to-day policy still matters. And if Mr Trump does seek a deal with China or if the trade war spills over into the security realm, the options presented to him and the capacity to anticipate China’s response will all be vital. Signalling weakness on Taiwan, for instance, has as much potential to trigger Chinese military action as being over-provocative. To engage China in a trade war without a coherent strategy is risky enough. Adventurism on the security front could be catastrophic. ■
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Источник: www.economist.com