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Even though solar and wind power are growing at a blistering pace

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In Shuozhou, a nondescript city of 1.6m people in northern China’s Shanxi province, the veins of the local economy run black with coal. To the north of the city lies one of the largest open-pit mines in the country. Shuozhou’s mines churn out 200m tonnes of the black stuff every year. Lines of lorries carry it to be washed, sorted, then burned in power stations across the country. If China ditched coal in favour of cleaner sources of power, the city would be “finished”, warns Sun Zhigang, a recently retired miner who is out walking his dog in the park.

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Shuozhou probably need not worry. Wind capacity tripled and solar capacity increased by a factor of 30 from 2014 to 2024, giving China more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined. On March 5th, at the annual session of China’s parliament, the prime minister, Li Qiang, boasted of “green” and “low-carbon” development. But few coal-fired plants are being retired in China—and more are being built. Last year construction started on enough of them to produce 100 gigawatts (gw) of power (see map), on top of the 1,170gw of capacity already installed. That addition alone would be roughly equivalent to the entire power capacity of Britain.

Chart: The Economist

Though the share of electricity being generated by coal is shrinking (see chart), the amount of coal being burned continues to increase to meet soaring demand. Officials seem to think that the costs of phasing out the fossil fuel, which supplies over half the power China generates, are too great. Are they right?

The stakes are high. China’s coal-fired power sector creates about 15% of global carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Even though average utilisation per plant has fallen to below 50%, overall generation is still increasing as more plants are built, with China hoping to create still more capacity in case it needs it in future. Coal mines also release methane, another potent greenhouse gas.

Based on current trends, China’s carbon-dioxide emissions may peak in the next year or two, but then level off as coal usage slows, rather than fall rapidly. That would prevent the country from eliminating net emissions—becoming “carbon neutral”—by 2060, as it has pledged. It would also undercut global efforts to combat climate change.

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Counting the cost

A faster reduction in coal use would be painful for many. One big cost would fall on power companies. The country’s coal-fired plants are, on average, just 12 years old, so most would be able to keep generating power for decades. Their owners would either have to swallow the costs of retiring them early, or else retrofit them to become cleaner by adding technology to try to capture the carbon they release.

An ambitious phase-out could cost as much as $1.4trn, according to a study published in January by researchers at Tsinghua University in Beijing and at the University of Maryland. Still, that would be spread over decades, and it would also be borne by state-owned firms, rather than more fragile private ones. In theory the government should be able to use China’s carbon market, set up in 2021, to motivate firms to clean up. Such schemes can put the more-polluting companies at a competitive disadvantage by making them buy credits to offset emissions.

But China’s market has had little impact so far, because regulators just give out most credits free. Another flaw is that the market is not based on companies’ total emissions but on their emissions per unit of power. That encourages firms to upgrade their old coal-fired generators to more efficient new ones, but not to stop using coal altogether.

A second cost of cutting coal would fall on workers. In Shuozhou it is hard to find anyone whose job is not linked to the industry. Some families have been working in the mines for three generations. In a part of the city that was purpose-built for miners, a park celebrates the workers with stone carvings of coal trucks, machinery and triumphant labourers.

In the dust

China produces some 4.8bn tonnes of coal annually, more than half the global total, and the industry employs about 2.7m people in mining and processing. Yet that accounts for just 0.4% of the country’s total workforce. And, strikingly, it is only half as many jobs as there were in the industry a decade ago. Thousands of small coal mines have been closed as a result of a government campaign to reduce mining accidents. Most of the remainder have become more automated. Last year one open-pit mine in the western region of Xinjiang boasted that the 300 smart vehicles that it used to strip topsoil were controlled by just six employees. In other words, much of the pain brought about by the layoffs has already been felt.

Wind and solar power, which require lots of workers for installations and maintenance, are a rapidly growing source of jobs. In 2023 the renewable-energy sector employed 7.4m people, a third more than the year before.

The third and biggest cost of cutting coal, as China’s leaders see it, would be for the country’s energy security. China has to import most of its oil and gas but has big coal reserves. In 2021 officials were spooked when droughts disrupted hydropower supplies, leading to blackouts in some of China’s industrial centres. Then in 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up oil and gas prices. Meanwhile, a manufacturing boom increased demand for power. All that convinced policymakers that more coal was needed to keep the lights on in factories and houses.

A lobby of mining firms and officials with ties to coal-rich regions is encouraging this line of thinking. So are some local governments, which like to build more power plants than are really needed to avoid having to rely on other regions when demand is high. And things are not helped by conservative grid operators, who want to be sure they will always have enough electricity, according to one academic who advises them: “They always say the more coal plants the better; they never say the fewer the better.”

A bolder approach could let China phase down coal without causing power cuts, says Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (crea), a think-tank in Finland. It would need much more renewable power and big upgrades to China’s grid to let clean energy be transferred over long distances or stored (to offset for the fact it can be generated only when the sun shines or when the wind blows). China is already spending substantial amounts on trying to clean up. Clean-energy investments came to $940bn, or 10% of gdp, in 2024. In that year alone the country installed more solar-power capacity (277gw) than exists in the whole of the United States (200gw).

The bottleneck is that China lacks a flexible, nationwide power market that could ensure clean power is efficiently dispatched to where it is needed. At the moment most power is sold locally through long-term contracts, which typically favour coal-fired plants by guaranteeing the purchase of fixed amounts of power. Attempts to reform the system have been slow. In the last quarter of 2024 China’s wind and solar power use dropped in spite of favourable weather, as a result of an “oversupply” of coal-fired power, according to analysis by crea.

All this threatens to further entrench the role of coal in the power-generation system and will make it expensive to phase out, says Yan Qin of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. After all, the more plants that are built, the higher the cost of abandoning them.

In Shuozhou, at least, few locals believe that China could ever cut its coal habit. When local pits are exhausted, there is plenty more coal elsewhere in China, notes one mine administrator. Consumption may start to decline soon, he says, but only very slowly. “It can’t be phased out,” says Zhu Zhiming, a former coal-truck driver who now runs a restaurant near one of the city’s mines. “They will keep mining it for a hundred years.” ■

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WorldChinaEnergyClimate change.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}

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@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0 .e1a1lgff0:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0 .e1a1lgff0{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0 .e1a1lgff0{padding-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0>hr+.e11c7tvl0:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0:nth-of-type(5){padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}.css-into0e .e3mhczn0 .e3mhczn0{margin-top:-0.25rem;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-into0e .e1a1lgff0:nth-of-type(3) .e3mhczn0{margin-top:0;}}.css-114o6rp{display:grid;grid-auto-flow:row;grid-column-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-row-gap:2.75rem;grid-auto-columns:1fr;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:89.5rem;overflow:hidden;position:relative;grid-row-gap:1.5rem;grid-template-areas:”group1″ “line” “group2” “line2” “group3″;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template:auto/repeat(12, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2” “line line line line line line line line line line line line” “group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3″;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group3 group3 group3″;}}.css-1ae0vf1{grid-area:group1;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-1ae0vf1::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–mb-responsive-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-1ae0vf1:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-130z65j{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;display:block;}.e1ns5z760 .css-130z65j{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.e1ns5z760 .css-130z65j{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.e1ns5z760 .css-130z65j{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.e1ns5z760 .css-130z65j{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.e1ns5z760 .css-130z65j{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.css-h6gsp2{position:relative;float:none;width:100%;margin:0;padding:0;}.css-h6gsp2 img{display:block;}.css-h6gsp2 svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-h6gsp2+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-h6gsp2+style+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-h6gsp2+.esjbanf0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-h6gsp2+style+.esjbanf0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-h6gsp2+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-h6gsp2+style+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-1awed3c{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-figures);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-leading);}.css-1awed3c a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-1awed3c a:hover,.css-1awed3c a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1awed3c a:focus,.css-1awed3c a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1awed3c a:active,.css-1awed3c a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1awed3c a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-1awed3c+.esimp700,.css-1awed3c+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.5rem;}

The War Room newsletter: How Chinese hackers hunt American secrets

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Estate agents in China are trying everything to sell flats

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You can place your deposit in bushels of wheat or strings of garlic

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The Chinese government is cracking down on predatory law enforcement 

Extortion by local officials causes a lot of anger

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Chinese hackers are getting bigger, better and stealthier

Experts say it is the main shift in the cyber-threat landscape in a decade

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China is developing some startling new kit in its quest to seize Taiwan

It could land troops there more speedily than ever

Ageism is rampant in Chinese companies

Never mind the middle-aged; millennials beware

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Источник: www.economist.com