«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»
.css-1xjkmih{color:var(–header-rubric-color, var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5));font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-size);font-style:normal;font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-leading);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-figures);}
The budget will show how the Party plans to tackle the dangers China faces
.css-vpmedt{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 52.125rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 68.5rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-start:2;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-start:3;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-start:4;}}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-end:7;}}@media (min-width: 52.125rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-end:10;}}@media (min-width: 68.5rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-end:9;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-end:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-vpmedt{grid-column-end:12;}}.css-vpmedt:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-18efhce{margin-top:var(–mb-spacing-xl);}.css-18efhce img{width:100%;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-18efhce{margin-top:var(–mb-spacing-2xl);}}.css-3mn275 img{display:block;}.css-3mn275 .e15o9k8g2{margin-top:0.25rem;}.css-1dkrsla{width:100%;font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);}.css-1st60ou{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);font-variant:var(–mb-font-small-caps);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);text-transform:lowercase;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.e15o9k8g0+.css-1st60ou{margin-left:0.25rem;}Photograph: Getty Images.css-1crn8pm .e9p4spg0{margin-bottom:2.1875rem;padding-top:1.75rem;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}.css-1crn8pm .ei4jjge0{padding:1.25rem 0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}.css-1crn8pm .ei4jjge0 +.em0l2j50{margin-top:0;}.css-1crn8pm .efrhgsj0{margin-top:1.3125rem;margin-bottom:2.1875rem;}.css-1lub2ht{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-1lub2ht +.evrxsn0{margin-top:0.75rem;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-1lub2ht +.evrxsn0{margin-top:1.75rem;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1lub2ht{margin-top:0.5rem;}}.css-shlg5w{position:relative;border-bottom:0;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-shlg5w{border-bottom:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}}.css-shlg5w .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-shlg5w >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-shlg5w >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-shlg5w >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-shlg5w >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-z11z87{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-z11z87{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-z11z87{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-z11z87{-webkit-box-pack:justify;-webkit-justify-content:space-between;justify-content:space-between;}}.css-1rlefqb{font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-figures);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);} Mar 2nd 2025.css-17do188{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;}.css-1s3lugw{display:none;}@media (max-width: 37.4375rem){.css-1s3lugw{display:block;}}.css-11yt5xn{position:relative;display:inline;}.css-11yt5xn .eeg8alx0{z-index:100;position:fixed;left:0;bottom:0;width:100%;border-bottom-left-radius:0;border-bottom-right-radius:0;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-11yt5xn .eeg8alx0{position:absolute;top:1.5rem;bottom:auto;left:auto;right:0;width:auto;border-radius:0.5rem;}}Share.css-ug4q19{margin-top:0.75rem;width:100%;display:inline-block;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-ug4q19{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-ug4q19:has(.ez7us1o0:first-child),.css-ug4q19:has(.e1wdoy1t0:first-child),.css-ug4q19:has(.eb1dths0:first-child){margin-top:0.875rem;}}.css-ug4q19 .e1wexn3l0{position:relative;}.css-80cr42 *+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0{margin-top:0;}.css-80cr42 .ez7us1o0:first-child,.css-80cr42 .e1wdoy1t0:first-child,.css-80cr42 .eb1dths0:first-child{margin:0;}.css-80cr42 .ez7us1o0 +*,.css-80cr42 .e1wdoy1t0 +*,.css-80cr42 .eb1dths0 +*{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 .ez7us1o0 +.e1mvczvy0,.css-80cr42 .e1wdoy1t0 +.e1mvczvy0,.css-80cr42 .eb1dths0 +.e1mvczvy0,.css-80cr42 .ez7us1o0 +.enls6fv0,.css-80cr42 .e1wdoy1t0 +.enls6fv0,.css-80cr42 .eb1dths0 +.enls6fv0,.css-80cr42 .ez7us1o0 +.e1bfu45c0,.css-80cr42 .e1wdoy1t0 +.e1bfu45c0,.css-80cr42 .eb1dths0 +.e1bfu45c0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.ez7us1o0,.css-80cr42 *+.e1wdoy1t0,.css-80cr42 *+.eb1dths0{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0+*,.css-80cr42 .enls6fv0+*,.css-80cr42 .e1bfu45c0+*{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .exqb7zc0+*{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.exqb7zc0{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.e1w3wqse0{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1w3wqse0+*{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.e1ypdxhw0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.e1bfu45c0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1bfu45c0+*{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1bfu45c0+.e1mvczvy0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0+.e1bfu45c0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 >.e18nv6n10+*{margin-top:0;}.css-80cr42 .ep3wan50+*{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .ep3wan50+.ep3wan50{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-80cr42 >.e13g57ro0+*{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1ypdxhw0+.e1y9q0ei0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e13g57ro0+.e1w3wqse0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e13g57ro0+.exqb7zc0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1bfu45c0+.e1bfu45c0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1ypdxhw0+.e13g57ro0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1ypdxhw0+.e18nv6n10{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e18nv6n10+.e13g57ro0{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e18nv6n10+.exqb7zc0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .enls6fv0+*,.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0+*{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.enls6fv0,.css-80cr42 *+.e1mvczvy0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .enls6fv0+.enls6fv0,.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0+.e1mvczvy0,.css-80cr42 .enls6fv0+.e1mvczvy0,.css-80cr42 .e1mvczvy0+.enls6fv0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-80cr42 .enls6fv1{margin-bottom:0.875rem;}}.css-80cr42 .e1ypdxhw0+.enls6fv1{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1ypdxhw0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1bfu45c0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0+.e13g57ro0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1w3wqse0+.enls6fv1,.css-80cr42 .e1w3wqse0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0,.css-80cr42 .exqb7zc0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0,.css-80cr42 .exqb7zc0+.enls6fv1{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1y9q0ei0+.enls6fv1,.css-80cr42 .e1y9q0ei0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0,.css-80cr42 .e13g57ro0+.enls6fv1,.css-80cr42 .e13g57ro0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0{margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1y9q0ei0+.ep3wan50{margin-top:1.75rem;}@media (max-width: 37.4375rem){.css-80cr42 .enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0,.css-80cr42 .exqb7zc0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0,.css-80cr42 .e1w3wqse0+.enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0{margin-top:0.875rem;}}.css-80cr42 .enls6fv1+*:not(.e1y9q0ei0),.css-80cr42 .enls6fv1+.e1y9q0ei0+*:not(.e1y9q0ei0){clear:both;}.css-80cr42 *:not(.evrxsn0)+.e1y9q0ei0:has([data-caps=’initial’]:first-child),.css-80cr42 *:not(.evrxsn0)+.e1y9q0ei0:has(.drop-cap:first-child){margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 .ep3wan50+.e1y9q0ei0:has([data-caps=’initial’]:first-child),.css-80cr42 .ep3wan50+.e1y9q0ei0:has(.drop-cap:first-child){margin-top:1.3125rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1cbnkh80{clear:both;}.css-80cr42 *+.e1cbnkh80{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 .e1cbnkh80+*{margin-top:2.1875rem;}.css-80cr42 *+.evrxsn0{margin-top:1.75rem;}.css-80cr42 .evrxsn0+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-1l5amll{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-leading);}.css-1l5amll del,.css-1l5amll s{-webkit-text-decoration:strikethrough;text-decoration:strikethrough;}.css-1l5amll strong,.css-1l5amll b{font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-bold);}.css-1l5amll em,.css-1l5amll i{font-style:italic;}.css-1l5amll sup{font-feature-settings:’sups’ 1;}.css-1l5amll sub{font-feature-settings:’subs’ 1;}.css-1l5amll small,.css-1l5amll .small-caps{display:inline;font-size:inherit;font-variant:var(–mb-font-small-caps);text-transform:lowercase;}.css-1l5amll u,.css-1l5amll .underline{-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:0.125rem;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1l5amll a{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-45);text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;text-underline-offset:0.1875rem;}.css-1l5amll a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1l5amll a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1l5amll a:active{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1l5amll [data-caps=’initial’],.css-1l5amll .drop-cap{float:left;font-feature-settings:’ss08′ 1;font-size:3.5rem;height:3.25rem;line-height:1;margin:0.0625rem 0.2rem 0 0;text-transform:uppercase;}.css-1l5amll [data-ornament=’ufinish’],.css-1l5amll .ufinish{color:var(–mb-colour-brand-red);}.css-1l5amll [data-ornament=’ufinish’]::before,.css-1l5amll .ufinish::before{font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-2-leading);content:’ ‘;}
WHEN PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP stands before a joint session of America’s Congress on March 4th, no one knows what he will say. Policymaking in the world’s biggest economy has become unpredictable, a swirl of executive orders, social-media posts and congressional wrangling. In recent days, for example, Mr Trump has taken to social media to announce a new 10% tariff on China, on top of a similar levy imposed in February, causing Chinese stocks in Hong Kong to fall by over 3% on February 28th. He has also urged Congress to pass a stopgap spending bill to avoid an imminent government shutdown.
In China, lawmaking is a little more sedate. Its legislature, the National People’s Congress, will gather for its annual meeting on March 5th, the day after Mr Trump’s address. Almost 3,000 delegates will assemble in the Great Hall of the People overlooking Tiananmen Square to hear a speech from Li Qiang, the prime minister. Everyone present will know almost all of what he will say. Yet the numbers in his speech will reveal whether China’s leaders grasp the scale of the deflationary dangers they face even as a trade war hangs over the world economy, and how fast they want to increase military spending as geopolitical tensions soar.
The prime minister will heap dutiful praise on his boss, Xi Jinping, and the leadership of the Communist Party. He will reveal the official economic growth target for 2025. He will also provide a catalogue of “major tasks” for the year ahead that will closely echo last year’s list. Industrial modernisation, technological self-reliance and expanding domestic demand are sure to feature. Over the subsequent week, the delegates will ponder the government’s budget and legislative proposals, armed with sharp red pencils and diligently refilled cups of tea. In a chaotic world one thing can be predicted with certainty: the delegates will approve the budget, with nary a murmur of complaint, and China’s government will not be shut down.
Unfortunately China’s $19trn economy is not as biddable as its parliament. Away from the ceremony of the people’s congress, not all is well with the people. Consumer confidence has never recovered from the covid-19 lockdowns. Homeowners are no longer sure that their flats will hold their value. And homebuyers who have paid in advance for unfinished properties are no longer confident they will ever be built. These fears have contributed to a lack of demand and many months of declining prices. Mr Trump’s tariffs will not help.
.css-1lhdxpm{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;container-name:onward-articles;container-type:inline-size;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;margin:2.188rem 0;}.css-1lhdxpm a>span,.css-1lhdxpm a:has(> span:first-child + span){margin-top:0;}.css-1lhdxpm ul{margin-top:var(–mb-spacing-md);}.css-1lhdxpm h2{font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-3-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-3-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-3-leading);}@container onward-articles (min-width:37.5rem) and (max-width:80rem){.e11kl3g90 .e1kb1ha80{float:none;margin:0;padding:0;width:100%;}.e11kl3g90 .e1kb1ha80 +.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.ejvhmuq0:has(.e11kl3g90){display:grid;grid-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-template-columns:repeat(3,1fr);}.ejvhmuq0:has(.e11kl3g90) li{border:0;padding-bottom:0;}.ejvhmuq0:has(.e11kl3g90) li+li{margin-top:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1lhdxpm{–total-columns:6;–total-gutters:calc(var(–total-columns) – 1);–component-columns:3;–component-gutters:calc(var(–component-columns) – 1);–offset:1;–width-per-gutter:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);–remaining-column-space:calc( 100% – (var(–total-gutters) * var(–width-per-gutter)) );–width-per-column:calc( var(–remaining-column-space) / var(–total-columns) );–component-offset-left:calc( ( (var(–width-per-column) * var(–offset)) + (var(–width-per-gutter) * var(–offset)) ) * -1 );–component-total-width:calc( (var(–width-per-column) * var(–component-columns)) + (var(–width-per-gutter) * var(–component-gutters)) );float:left;margin-left:var(–component-offset-left);margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-bottom:1.656rem;padding-right:2.125rem;padding-top:1.375rem;width:var(–component-total-width);}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-1lhdxpm{–total-columns:8;–component-columns:4;–offset:2;}}
More from Economy
.css-14gnxf6 li{border-bottom:var(–mb-border-standard);padding-bottom:1rem;}.css-14gnxf6 li+li{margin-top:1rem;}.css-14gnxf6 li:last-child{border-bottom:0;padding-bottom:0;margin-bottom:0.5rem;}
- .css-195326x{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;}.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-195326x{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-195326x{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-5misog{position:relative;margin:0.25rem 0 0 1.5rem;padding:0;float:right;width:33%;}.css-5misog img{display:block;}.css-5misog svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-5misog+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0;}.css-5misog+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0;}.css-5misog+.e1etum70{margin-top:0;}
.css-apziln{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-figures);font-weight:500;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-leading);}.css-apziln a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-apziln a:hover,.css-apziln a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-apziln a:focus,.css-apziln a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-apziln a:active,.css-apziln a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-apziln a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-apziln+.esimp700,.css-apziln+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.25rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-apziln+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
America faces a Trumpian economic slowdown
Investors fear inflation is coming back. They may be right
Will Europe return to Putin’s gas?
All of our Economy coverage
The Politburo of the Communist Party, which is far more powerful than the rubber-stamp legislature, seemed to wake up to some of these dangers in September, when it promised to provide more stimulus, including a more forceful fiscal policy. Economists have been waiting ever since for China’s leaders to put numbers to those commitments. Mr Li’s speech, and the budget that accompanies it, should break their suspense.
Mr Li will probably announce a growth target for 2025 of about 5%, the same as last year. Anything less than that will be greeted with dismay by the financial markets. Many economists point out that China’s “potential” growth rate (which reflects its underlying productive capacity) is probably now below 5%. But China needs to grow faster than its potential rate for a spell, in order to mobilise idle capacity and dispel deflation.
Mr Li will also reveal a target for this year’s headline budget deficit. With luck, it will rise from 3% of GDP last year to 4% this year. The headline figure covers only a fraction of China’s sprawling public finances, leaving out government-managed funds and financing vehicles sponsored by local governments, among other things. But the headline number sends an important signal. China typically tries to keep the official deficit at 3% of GDP or below, in keeping with old-fashioned international norms. A 4% deficit will show that it is willing to abandon fiscal piety for the sake of rescuing the economy.
On top of the headline deficit, the central government will also sell another batch of long-term bonds. These could total as much as 2.5trn yuan ($340bn), according to some estimates, including money raised for recapitalising banks. The new budget will also loosen the fiscal reins on local governments by increasing the quota of “special bonds” they can sell. These securities have traditionally been reserved for infrastructure projects that can earn some revenue. But local governments can now use part of the money to buy unsold flats and idle land from property developers. All told, economists expect China’s broad fiscal deficit to increase by at least 2% of GDP. Anything less would count as a disappointment.
The scale of stimulus is not the only thing to watch; style matters as well as size. The hope is that instead of lavishing money on bridges to nowhere and other white elephants, more of the money can be channelled to households. The government is poised to expand its trade-in programme for consumer goods, which provides incentives to households to replace old gear with new. It may also increase basic pensions, reduce premiums on medical insurance and perhaps provide handouts to families with more than one child.
One budget item that always raises an eyebrow is military spending. In recent years it has increased by 7% or so in nominal terms—without adjusting for rising prices. In the past, China’s economy grew at a similar rate, through a mix of real growth and inflation. That kept the official military budget fairly steady as a percentage of GDP, fluctuating around 1.2-1.3%. But now that China is suffering from slower growth and deflation, the equation has changed. Military spending cannot keep growing at its recent pace without consuming a greater share of the economy. Last year nominal GDP grew by only 4.2%. This year might not be much better. The budget will reveal whether military spending will bow to these new economic constraints, or if defence will prove deflation-proof.
Mr Xi himself will not make a headline speech at the National People’s Congress. But he will appear at various breakout sessions during the week. Last year he met with the boss of a solar-power company and touted the benefits of “new productive forces”—a buzzword for the advanced manufacturing industries that Mr Xi hopes will drive China’s economy in the coming decades. Mr Trump communicates spontaneously and chaotically. Mr Xi is carefully controlled. But in both China and America, people pay close attention to the paramount leader’s every word.■
.css-1h7zq19{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:flex-start;-webkit-box-align:flex-start;-ms-flex-align:flex-start;align-items:flex-start;margin:1.3125rem 0 2.1875rem 0;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1h7zq19{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}}.css-1h7zq19 nav{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}.css-rb5rp6{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-size);font-style:normal;font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-leading);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-figures);white-space:nowrap;-webkit-align-self:start;-ms-flex-item-align:start;align-self:start;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-rb5rp6{padding-top:var(–mb-spacing-2xs);}}
Explore more
EconomyChina.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}
More from China
@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0{padding-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0>hr+.e11kl3g90:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0:nth-of-type(5){padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}.css-1os14tz .e3mhczn0 .e3mhczn0{margin-top:-0.25rem;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0:nth-of-type(3) .e3mhczn0{margin-top:0;}}.css-114o6rp{display:grid;grid-auto-flow:row;grid-column-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-row-gap:2.75rem;grid-auto-columns:1fr;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:89.5rem;overflow:hidden;position:relative;grid-row-gap:1.5rem;grid-template-areas:”group1″ “line” “group2” “line2” “group3″;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template:auto/repeat(12, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2” “line line line line line line line line line line line line” “group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3″;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group3 group3 group3″;}}.css-1f07iwu{grid-area:group1;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-1f07iwu::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-1f07iwu:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-12lyffs{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;display:block;}.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-12lyffs{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-12lyffs{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-koo8ga{position:relative;float:none;width:100%;margin:0;padding:0;}.css-koo8ga img{display:block;}.css-koo8ga svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-koo8ga+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}
.css-fjl2tu{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-figures);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-leading);}.css-fjl2tu a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-fjl2tu a:hover,.css-fjl2tu a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-fjl2tu a:focus,.css-fjl2tu a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-fjl2tu a:active,.css-fjl2tu a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-fjl2tu a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-fjl2tu+.esimp700,.css-fjl2tu+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-fjl2tu+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
The AfD’s unusual China connection
.css-1p38euj{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);max-width:43.75rem;font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-leading);}
Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s AfD, spent six years in the People’s Republic
.css-o65eh1{grid-area:group2;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-o65eh1::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-o65eh1:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-153odn9{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;display:block;}.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-153odn9{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-153odn9{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-cxlel1{position:relative;float:none;width:100%;margin:0;padding:0;}.css-cxlel1 img{display:block;}.css-cxlel1 svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-cxlel1+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}@media (min-width: 30rem){.css-cxlel1{margin:0.25rem 0 0 1.5rem;padding:0;float:right;width:33%;}.css-cxlel1+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0;}.css-cxlel1+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0;}.css-cxlel1+.e1etum70{margin-top:0;}}
.css-1mxvqtz{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-figures);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-leading);}.css-1mxvqtz a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-1mxvqtz a:hover,.css-1mxvqtz a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1mxvqtz a:focus,.css-1mxvqtz a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1mxvqtz a:active,.css-1mxvqtz a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1mxvqtz a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-1mxvqtz+.esimp700,.css-1mxvqtz+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-1mxvqtz+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
Who works where, doing what, in China
A surprising new census shows a workforce being transformed
.css-1r8cil5{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);margin:1.5rem 0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;width:100%;}
Could there be Chinese troops in Europe?
China’s leaders now talk of “a window of opportunity for peace”
.css-tmnt5q{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-figures);font-weight:500;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-leading);}.css-tmnt5q a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-tmnt5q a:hover,.css-tmnt5q a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-tmnt5q a:focus,.css-tmnt5q a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-tmnt5q a:active,.css-tmnt5q a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-tmnt5q a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-tmnt5q+.esimp700,.css-tmnt5q+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.25rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-tmnt5q+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)
They will go to great lengths to try
.css-xxci4{grid-area:group3;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-xxci4::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-xxci4:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-tlw2sg{display:grid;grid-auto-flow:row;grid-column-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-row-gap:2.75rem;grid-auto-columns:1fr;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:89.5rem;overflow:hidden;position:relative;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-tlw2sg{grid-template:auto/repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-tlw2sg{grid-template:auto/repeat(1, minmax(0, 1fr));}}.css-1smej6r{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1smej6r::before{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);content:””;height:100%;position:absolute;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}}.css-1smej6r:last-child::after{height:0;}
China’s alarming sex imbalance
By 2027 one in six young Chinese men won’t be able to find a partner
Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university
It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou
.css-15mtz82{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);grid-area:line;margin:0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;margin:0;width:100%;display:block;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-15mtz82{display:none;}}.css-kph0pz{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);grid-area:line2;margin:0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;margin:0;width:100%;display:block;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-kph0pz{display:none;}}
Источник: www.economist.com