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The Communist Party may be hoarding fiscal firepower to offset a possible trade war  

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OF ALL THE people anxiously watching America’s presidential election, spare a thought for Chinese investors. Their economy is already contending with a property slump that began more than three years ago and persistent deflation that began over 18 months ago. Now they must contemplate a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, bringing the threat of steep tariffs in his wake.

After the election, especially if Mr Trump wins, attention in China will focus on a gathering of officials in Beijing three days later on November 8th. The standing committee of the country’s legislature will approve a much anticipated package of fiscal measures which may recapitalise banks, refinance local-government debt and, perhaps, resuscitate consumption. The fiscal figures released will reveal much about the mindset of China’s leaders. Do they at last recognise the severity of the country’s economic problems? And how much are they willing to spend to fix them?

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Hopes of bold action rose in late September after a flurry of unusual statements and signals. The central bank eased monetary policy and introduced new tools to boost the stockmarket, kicking off a rally in Chinese shares (see chart). The powerful Politburo of the ruling Communist Party also promised a more forceful response to the country’s economic plight. Investors thought they heard the sound of a bazooka being loaded.

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Media reports suggested the government was prepared to borrow an extra 3trn yuan ($420bn), which would be split evenly between bank capital, help for local governments and consumer stimulus, including handouts for families with two or more children. Some mainland economists, only one step removed from the state, talked of even higher numbers. Liu Shijin, who used to work for a think-tank attached to the cabinet, urged the government to raise 10trn yuan over a year or two, which could be spent on improving the lot of migrant workers and poorer households. China’s central government, which has the fiscal firepower to revive the country’s economy, seemed to be overcoming its aversion to handouts and swallowing its qualms about rescuing indebted local authorities.

That may still prove to be the case. According to Reuters, a news agency, the government will use the meeting in November to allow local authorities to sell an extra 4trn yuan-worth of special bonds over five years to help buy unused land and unsold properties from developers. (That adds up to about 0.5% of GDP over that period.) Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank, thinks there is a 50% chance that the standing committee will announce an increase in this year’s budget-deficit target, much as it did last year. That would help cash-strapped local governments pay salaries and suppliers, and meet spending targets in health care and education, as well as science and technology, which China’s leader, Xi Jinping, considers a priority.

Mr Lu also believes the government will offer help to households. It could increase payouts to 165m poor pensioners and help the rural elderly meet the cost of medical insurance. It could also offer cash subsidies for childbirth. It may take time to implement such giveaways. But “given the very high expectation in the market and given the need for boosting confidence,” says Mr Lu, “I think they will announce as much as possible at the November meeting.”

Other investors still fear that the government lacks urgency and ambition. The stockmarket has stalled after several underwhelming press conferences by China’s ministries in October. Hopes for stimulus have also weakened because the economy has strengthened a little. Surveys of purchasing managers revealed a pickup in manufacturing output and even prices in October. Weak home-building was offset by an acceleration of civil-engineering projects, evidence of an infrastructure revival. Sales of cars and household appliances also improved in September, thanks in part to an existing government scheme, introduced in March and expanded in July, that encourages people to trade in their old goods for newer ones. A survey of over 1,000 consumers in October by Bank of America found that nearly half of them took advantage of the scheme.

Thanks to this improved momentum, China’s economy is within reach of the official growth target for this year of “around 5%”. Local governments also have substantial scope for further spending in the coming months by drawing on the unspent proceeds of existing special bonds, which are traditionally used for revenue-generating infrastructure projects.

Many economists, accordingly, have modest expectations for the package to be announced on November 8th. The government might spell out its plans for recapitalising banks, which could cost 1trn yuan, and refinancing local-government debt, which could require 6trn yuan-worth of bonds spread over three years. But observers doubt it will do much more than that.

Such measures would ward off the danger of a local-government default. But they would not be enough to end deflation and help China fulfil its growth potential. Their aim would be to put a floor under the economy, not to help it reach its ceiling. “I don’t think they have made up their mind to do a major stimulus to reflate the economy,” says Larry Hu of Macquarie, a bank. If that is going to happen, he says, it will probably be when exports, a source of strength for much of this year, lose momentum.

Global markets could turn quickly if Mr Trump were to regain the presidency. If he follows through on his threat to impose tariffs of 60% on China, the levies could cut 2.5 percentage points from China’s growth over the subsequent year, according to UBS, a bank. In response, China’s leaders would have to enact a bolder stimulus. Whenever the polls move in Mr Trump’s favour, investors see a higher chance of China reaching for its bazooka. What China’s policymakers approve on November 8th may depend on what American voters decide on November 5th. ■

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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Why China may be saving its bazooka”

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China

November 2nd 2024

• →Why China may be saving its bazooka for Donald Trump
• →North Korea’s aid to Russia raises difficult questions in China
• →China rounds up Batman, Donald Trump and the Buddha
• →A new intellectual hub for Chinese émigrés in Washington

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From the November 2nd 2024 edition

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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

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Источник: www.economist.com