Why China is unlikely to restrain Iran

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Officials in Beijing are looking out for China’s interests, not anyone else’s

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EARLIER THIS year, when the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen were attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, America approached China for help. In talks with their Chinese counterparts, American officials reportedly asked them to urge Iran to rein in the Houthis. Months later, after Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria, America again approached its biggest rival. This time it was said to have asked China to tell Iran not to retaliate.

During crises like these China would seem a useful interlocutor. It has good relations with Iran. Last year it facilitated a deal to re-establish diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It also allowed Iran to join its regional security group, the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, as well as the BRICS, a bloc of big emerging economies. After the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, heralded a “wave of reconciliation” in the Middle East.

But beyond that agreement, it does not appear that China has much interest in holding Iran back for the sake of reconciliation. The Houthis did not stop their attacks, nor did Iran refrain from retaliating against Israel this month. It is unlikely that China put much pressure on Iran in either case. And even if it had, Iran may not have listened. There is less to their relationship than meets the eye. For China, the priority is advancing its own interests.

Three years ago China and Iran signed what appeared to be a sweeping 25-year co-operation agreement, said to involve $400bn in new Chinese investment in Iran. But China invested just $19.7m in Iran in 2022, compared with $279m in Israel. Iran sees China’s trade and investment as “kind of insulting”, says Jonathan Fulton of the Atlantic Council, a think-tank in Washington. Iran is awash in Chinese imports, but China buys relatively little from Iran apart from hydrocarbons.

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In many ways the relationship is defined by oil. China buys roughly 90% of the black stuff produced by Iran, sidestepping American sanctions. It thus provides Iran with an economic lifeline. But China has its own economy in mind. Iranian oil is cheap and lets China diversify its energy supply. Its purchases hit a record high last autumn, but temporarily stalled in the winter when Iranian sellers raised prices.

China opposes American sanctions on most countries—and seeks to outsmart them. The oil imported from Iran is often relabelled as Malaysian and sold at a discount to small independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots”. China’s big state refiners steer clear of Iranian oil for fear of punishment by America. But the teapots are “highly opportunistic” and less exposed to America’s financial system, says Erica Downs of Columbia University.

China’s cynical approach extends beyond the oil trade. It may not have pressed the Houthis to stop attacking all commercial ships in the Red Sea, but it is said to have struck a deal to spare its own vessels.

And when Iran hit back against Israel this month, China was supportive. Officials in Beijing praised Iran’s restraint and condemned Israel’s aggression against Iran and in Gaza. “The main key to easing tensions in the Middle East lies in the US restraining Israel, not China ‘reining in’ Iran,” said an editorial by the Global Times, a state-run tabloid. That argument is playing well in the region, says Ahmed Aboudouh of Chatham House, a think-tank in London. “America is declining in the Middle East in terms of influence because of the Gaza war. China is taking advantage of that,” he says. “It wouldn’t spend political capital to turn that around for the US.”

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.css-1h7zq19{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:flex-start;-webkit-box-align:flex-start;-ms-flex-align:flex-start;align-items:flex-start;margin:1.3125rem 0 2.1875rem 0;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1h7zq19{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}}.css-1h7zq19 nav{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}.css-rb5rp6{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-size);font-style:normal;font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-leading);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-figures);white-space:nowrap;-webkit-align-self:start;-ms-flex-item-align:start;align-self:start;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-rb5rp6{padding-top:var(–mb-spacing-2xs);}}

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IranChina.css-2x8c4j{margin:0.875rem 0;}.css-2x8c4j .e12sz0jx0+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.el1rg701+.css-2x8c4j{margin-top:0;}.css-1aogxph{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);}.css-1aogxph s,.css-1aogxph del{-webkit-text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph b{font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-semibold);}.css-1aogxph i{font-style:italic;}.css-1aogxph sup{font-feature-settings:’sups’ 1;}.css-1aogxph sub{font-feature-settings:’subs’ 1;}.css-1aogxph u{text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph a{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;text-underline-offset:0.1875rem;}.css-1aogxph a:hover,.css-1aogxph a:focus,.css-1aogxph a:active{text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1aogxph a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:hover span{text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;}.css-1aogxph a:active{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Friends, sorta”

.css-1i1rou5 div>div:first-child{margin-left:var(–mb-spacing-lg);}.css-1i1rou5 ul>li:last-child{padding-bottom:0;border-bottom:0;}

China

April 27th 2024

  • How Chinese networks clean dirty money on a vast scale
  • Why China is unlikely to restrain Iran
  • China’s young people are rushing to buy gold
  • China’s ties with Russia are growing more solid

.css-ra48xw{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);position:relative;}.css-duuyjs{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-box-pack:column;-ms-flex-pack:column;-webkit-justify-content:column;justify-content:column;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;text-align:center;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-lg);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-lg);}.css-s61v3v{border-radius:0.125rem;box-shadow:-0.125rem 0.125rem 0.25rem 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.4);margin-bottom:0.75rem;min-width:10rem;max-width:12rem;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-s61v3v{min-width:12rem;}}.css-s61v3v img{display:block;max-width:100%;}.css-std7t4{max-width:16rem;}.css-nba04v{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-figures);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-medium);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-leading);margin-bottom:0.25rem;}

From the April 27th 2024 edition

.css-exdolm{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-figures);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-leading);margin-bottom:1.5rem;}

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}

More from China

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Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)

.css-1p38euj{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);max-width:43.75rem;font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-leading);}

They will go to great lengths to try

.css-o65eh1{grid-area:group2;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-o65eh1::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-o65eh1:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-153odn9{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;display:block;}.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-153odn9,.e1ns5z760 .css-153odn9{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-153odn9{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-153odn9{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-cxlel1{position:relative;float:none;width:100%;margin:0;padding:0;}.css-cxlel1 img{display:block;}.css-cxlel1 svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-cxlel1+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-cxlel1+style+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}@media (min-width: 30rem){.css-cxlel1{margin:0.25rem 0 0 1.5rem;padding:0;float:right;width:33%;}.css-cxlel1+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0;}.css-cxlel1+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0;}.css-cxlel1+.e1etum70{margin-top:0;}}People posing next to a newly renovated statue of a pair of parents and three children in Hankou Park.css-1mxvqtz{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-figures);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-leading);}.css-1mxvqtz a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-1mxvqtz a:hover,.css-1mxvqtz a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1mxvqtz a:focus,.css-1mxvqtz a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1mxvqtz a:active,.css-1mxvqtz a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1mxvqtz a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-1mxvqtz+.esimp700,.css-1mxvqtz+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-1mxvqtz+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}

China’s alarming sex imbalance

By 2027 one in six young Chinese men won’t be able to find a partner

.css-1r8cil5{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);margin:1.5rem 0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;width:100%;}An intelligent quadruped robot developed by DeepRobotics walks down stairs

Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university

It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou

.css-tmnt5q{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-figures);font-weight:500;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-2-leading);}.css-tmnt5q a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-tmnt5q a:hover,.css-tmnt5q a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-tmnt5q a:focus,.css-tmnt5q a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-tmnt5q a:active,.css-tmnt5q a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-tmnt5q a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-tmnt5q+.esimp700,.css-tmnt5q+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.25rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-tmnt5q+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}

Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

.css-xxci4{grid-area:group3;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-xxci4::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-xxci4:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-tlw2sg{display:grid;grid-auto-flow:row;grid-column-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-row-gap:2.75rem;grid-auto-columns:1fr;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:89.5rem;overflow:hidden;position:relative;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-tlw2sg{grid-template:auto/repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-tlw2sg{grid-template:auto/repeat(1, minmax(0, 1fr));}}.css-1smej6r{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1smej6r::before{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);content:””;height:100%;position:absolute;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1smej6r::after{background-color:var(–ds-color-london-85);bottom:-1.5rem;content:””;height:1px;position:absolute;left:0;width:calc(110% + var(–ds-grid-gap));}}.css-1smej6r:last-child::after{height:0;}

Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

.css-15mtz82{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);grid-area:line;margin:0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;margin:0;width:100%;display:block;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-15mtz82{display:none;}}.css-kph0pz{border-width:0;border-top:1px solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);grid-area:line2;margin:0;margin:1.5rem 0 1.25rem;margin:0;width:100%;display:block;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-kph0pz{display:none;}}

Источник: www.economist.com