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Some have made small fortunes, others have lost everything

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“I can’t even do the maths any more! It’s so incredible!” With those words, uttered on September 30th, a retail trader summed up the state of China’s stockmarkets during a surge that lasted from mid-September to early October. Posting on social media, the man marvelled at the boom in share prices. Others told triumphant tales of enormous returns.

Already rising, Chinese stocks took off after the government announced on September 24th new measures to boost the economy and increase consumption. These included a policy-rate cut and lower reserve requirements for banks. The central bank also promised to create a 500bn-yuan ($70bn) swap programme to fund stock purchases by institutional investors and said it would help firms buy back their own shares by refinancing certain loans.

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That led to record-setting trading volumes and big rises in China’s main stockmarket indices. The CSI 300, an index of the country’s biggest stocks, shot up by as much as 35% during the buying spree (see chart). Data from securities firms, reported in local media, suggest that young punters were eager to get in on the action. Many of those opening new brokerage accounts were born after 1990, according to the firms. State media reported that traders were taking out consumer loans to buy stocks, leading to stern warnings from officials.

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One of those who opened a new account was a 26-year-old graduate student in Beijing. She had long considered entering the market, yet resisted, she told The Economist. The recent surge convinced her to jump in. At the end of September she put 15,000 yuan, most of her savings, into the account. “With the little money I have, there is absolutely no way I could consider buying property or investing in anything else,” she said. “So I thought maybe I could make a little money this way.”

For days she was glued to her phone, watching stock prices rise. The fun ended on October 9th, when the indices took a downward turn. This came on the heels of an announcement that disappointed investors. While talking up the need for more stimulus, officials offered only vague hints about what was to come. A detail-free press conference by the Ministry of Finance on October 12th added to the sour mood. News that the government may raise 6trn yuan from special treasury bonds over three years has so far failed to lift spirits.

The frenzy highlights a stubborn feature of the country’s stockmarkets, says Michael Pettis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank based in Washington. Most investors are responding to signals from regulators, looking at the same information and interpreting it in the same way. “This always leads to huge volatility as everyone rushes to buy or sell at the same time,” he says.

The student from Beijing considers herself lucky: “I got out before I lost everything.” She found the experience nerve-racking and is not planning to trade more in the future. Others have fared much worse. One investor griped on social media that he had lost 600,000 yuan in two days. “I was told there is a bull run,” he wrote, “but where is the bull?” ■

Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.

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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Buy, buy, buy…sell!”

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China

October 19th 2024

• →Does China welcome—or dread—an Iran-Israel war?
• →China makes love and war with Taiwan
• →Do amateurs regret jumping into China’s frenzied stockmarkets?
• →In China, fib online and find out

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From the October 19th 2024 edition

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Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

⇒Explore the edition.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}

More from China

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Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)

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They will go to great lengths to try

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China’s alarming sex imbalance

By 2027 one in six young Chinese men won’t be able to find a partner

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Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university

It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou

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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

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Источник: www.economist.com