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The party sees no need for a decisive break with the past
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The Chinese Communist Party has just finished its “third plenum”, a big meeting held roughly twice a decade devoted to long-term reform. From July 15th to 18th more than 360 members of the party’s Central Committee—including the country’s most senior political and military leaders as well as bosses of state firms—sequestered themselves in a Beijing hotel to master the latest party doctrine on “Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernisation”. It could have been worse. The most famous third plenum, held in 1978, lasted a day longer and followed a 36-day work conference in the same hotel attended by many of the same long-suffering delegates.
That plenum did, however, make history. It acknowledged some blunders, confirmed Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power and blessed a momentous opening-up of China’s economy. During this week’s meeting, state media portrayed Xi Jinping, China’s ruler since 2012, as a reformer on a par with Deng, seized by a similar mission, with the courage to climb mountains where tigers lurk—a metaphor he has adopted to describe the challenge ahead. The coverage was clearly designed to raise high expectations for the meeting.
A brave reformer would certainly be welcome in today’s China. The economy is suffering from low confidence, inadequate consumer spending and persistent deflation. It is struggling to wean itself off a growth model and fiscal system reliant on selling land and building property. It also faces a more hostile Western world that is raising barriers to its exports and imposing limits on the technological inputs it can buy.
The Central Committee normally holds seven plenums in its five-year term. The third is often devoted to economic and other reforms, making it an event that draws particular attention—state media did their best before this one to stress its importance. But judging by the official communiqué released on July 18th, the just-concluded plenum climbed few mountains.
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It stressed continuity rather than a course correction. The plenum accepted the resignation of the former foreign minister, Qin Gang, from the Central Committee—he disappeared from public view more than a year ago after serving just a few months in the job. Mr Qin was thought to be close to Mr Xi, but there is no sign that Mr Xi has taken a political knock. His longstanding economic priorities were all faithfully reflected in the communiqué. It described the interweaving of national security and economic development, the bet on high-tech “new productive forces” and the exhausting ideological conformity China’s leader now demands. “We will improve public opinion guidance and effectively deal with risks in the ideological domain,” the communiqué said.
For investors worried about more immediate economic risks, including slowing growth and continuing property distress, the communiqué offered some reassurance. It emphasised that the party remains “firmly” committed to its annual economic goals, which presumably includes this year’s official growth target of around 5%. The party will “strive to expand domestic demand”, it said, and defuse risks in the property market, local-government debt and China’s smaller banks.
Optimists might also take comfort from things the communiqué did not say. The equivalent document after the third plenum in 2013 endorsed the “leading role of the state-owned sector” and “public ownership playing a dominant role”. No equivalent statements appeared this time. Instead there was a promise to “purposefully give more prominence to reform” and to “better leverage the role of the market”. Those sentiments are laudable. The problem is that China’s rulers have often mouthed similar economic pieties in the past, then cracked down clumsily on any industry that falls out of their favour. The party’s ambivalence was reflected in the communiqué’s call for “letting go” to invigorate market forces while “managing well” to keep market order.
The party likes to set out its economic aspirations in epic terms. The plenum, for example, set a deadline of 2029 to complete its tasks. This date is out of sync with the next five-year plan (which will end in 2030). Nor does it line up with the customary schedule for the next third plenum (which would normally take place in 2028). It does however coincide with the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. It is a narrative choice not a technocratic one.
Precisely because it is a story-telling device, the communiqué is not always the best guide to the policy deliberations it reflects. After the third plenum in 2013, a similarly broad-brush communiqué was followed a few days later by a more substantive “decision” document, which spanned 60 sections and over 300 reform proposals. If a similar document appears this year, it may cast this year’s plenum in a different light.
Indeed, some of the reforms outlined in 2013 have borne fruit in the years since. China has eliminated extreme poverty, abandoned the one-child policy and relaxed its hukou system of household registration, which makes it hard for rural migrants to settle properly in urban areas, in all cities with fewer than 5m people. It has liberalised interest rates, capital inflows and electricity prices. It has reformed value-added taxes and cut red-tape for businesses. China’s economy has grown bigger, technologically more sophisticated and greener.
The most famous promise from 2013 has however remained unfulfilled. That plenum promised to give markets a “decisive” role in the allocation of resources. Almost 11 years later, private enterprise does not feel emboldened. Instead, the party has come to play a more decisive role in China’s economy. And Mr Xi has played an ever larger role in the party. The communiqué this week gave no reason to believe that will change. ■
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China.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}
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Источник: www.economist.com