«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»

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It promises many reforms, but remains ambivalent about the role of the market

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ONLY 205 of the Chinese Communist Party’s 99m members serve as full members of its Central Committee. Reaching such giddy heights (the top 0.0002%) is not always a privilege. Of late for example, it has meant spending four days in July closeted in a Beijing hotel poring over an epic resolution on “Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernisation”.

Known as the “third plenum”, this was one of seven plenary meetings that punctuate a Central Committee’s five-year term. By tradition, the third has been used to approve big economic-policy shifts. Many analysts argue another rethink is long overdue. Xi Jinping, China’s ruler since 2012, once promised to give markets a “decisive” role in the allocation of resources. But he has since lost the confidence of private enterprise. And the economy is struggling to wean itself off decades of investment in property and infrastructure.

Data released on July 15th showed flagging growth, slowing retail sales, persistent deflation and no recovery in homebuilding. Many economists believe China’s leadership is preoccupied with the “supply side” of the economy—cultivating the technologies, kit and skills that enable China to produce things—but has not done enough to revive the “demand side”. It has failed to restore the confidence of entrepreneurs, or to give households the means and motivation to buy things.

Did this third plenum respond to these concerns? The answer is a heavily qualified yes. It was closed to outsiders, but on July 21st published a resolution, open to all with the fortitude to wade through over 22,000 characters of partyspeak (more than 17,000 words in English). This suggests that China’s leaders remain obsessed with technology. But they may also be a little more attentive to household demand.

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⇒All of our Xi Jinping coverage

Of its 60 sections, three are devoted to innovation, including one on “talent”. A fourth discusses “new productive forces”, the economic buzzword of the past ten months, which refers to technology-driven leaps in productivity.

This emphasis reflects Mr Xi’s belief that the world is in the midst of a scientific revolution that China should lead. But it also betrays Mr Xi’s siege mentality. He is determined to break America’s stranglehold on key technological inputs, such as high-end semiconductors. In 2013 the plenum resolution allocated three sections to national security and military reform. This one devotes seven, including a commitment to counter foreign sanctions. 

The biggest internal threat to China’s economy is its property slump. The resolution said little about housing directly. But it did tackle one of the side-effects of the slump: how hard it is for local governments to raise revenue by selling land. In response, the central government will take on a greater share of public spending and refrain from imposing new obligations on local governments without matching resources. It will give them a portion of the money raised by China’s consumption tax on luxuries and indulgences. It will also explore combining three local levies into a single tax and giving local governments some leeway to set the rate.

What about the neglected demand side of China’s economy? Many policies and aspirations mentioned in the resolution could in principle boost consumption. It repeated a long-standing pledge to raise household income as a share of GDP, and promised subsidies for childbearing. It will consider allowing debtors to declare personal bankruptcy. It will increase pensions “gradually” and welfare spending “within our means”. Migrants from the countryside will have easier access to pensions, housing and education in the cities where they work. The resolution also recognised that many migrant workers will not settle in cities if that means forfeiting their claims on collectively owned land in their home villages. So ways in which people could sell or lease out these claims will be explored.

.css-izf7kx{width:21rem;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-izf7kx{float:left;margin-right:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);}.css-izf7kx .e1197rjj0{padding-top:0.375rem;}}Chart: The Economist

Will all this translate into effective reform? The party’s record is one of slow progress. Government spending on social security, health and employment has increased gradually from 3% of GDP in 2008 to almost 5% in 2023. And household income has risen from 59% of GDP in 2008 to 66% in 2021 by one measure. China’s leaders may be starting to accept the urgency of lifting demand. At the close of the plenum, the party said it remains committed to its growth target for this year (see chart 1). And in the days after the plenum, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates (see chart 2).

Chart: The Economist

The resolution also offered reassurance for private entrepreneurs shaken by recent regulatory crackdowns. E-commerce and other internet firms, which suffered a blizzard of fines, bans and restrictions in 2021, can now look forward to more “routine” regulation, it said. It mentioned a private-sector promotion law and even promised to redress “wrongly adjudicated cases”. But businesses have learnt not to take promises at face value. The party’s attitude toward free markets remains conflicted. This ambivalence was captured well by new language in the resolution about “letting go” to invigorate market forces, while “managing well” to keep market order.

The plenum made clear that China’s “modernisation” will be of a style of its own. China is so vast and varied that no other country offers a convincing model, Qiushi, a party journal, argued this month. As a reminder of China’s idiosyncrasies, it invoked an old saying: south of the Huai river, oranges are sweet; north of the river, they are bitter.

Official lore is that China’s economic exceptionalism is rooted chiefly in the size of its population and the dominance of the party. Outsiders point to other distinctive features such as inhibited consumption and insecure private enterprise. The reforms outlined at the plenum could eventually encourage freer household spending. But the party’s ambivalence towards the market persists. For China’s communist leaders, the fruits of private enterprise will always be bittersweet. ■

Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.

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Xi JinpingChina.css-2x8c4j{margin:0.875rem 0;}.css-2x8c4j .e12sz0jx0+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.el1rg701+.css-2x8c4j{margin-top:0;}.css-1aogxph{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);}.css-1aogxph s,.css-1aogxph del{-webkit-text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph b{font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-semibold);}.css-1aogxph i{font-style:italic;}.css-1aogxph sup{font-feature-settings:’sups’ 1;}.css-1aogxph sub{font-feature-settings:’subs’ 1;}.css-1aogxph u{text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph a{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;text-underline-offset:0.1875rem;}.css-1aogxph a:hover,.css-1aogxph a:focus,.css-1aogxph a:active{text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1aogxph a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:hover span{text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;}.css-1aogxph a:active{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “An ample supply of promises”

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China

July 27th 2024

• →China unveils its new economic vision
• →The noose around the press in Hong Kong tightens
• →The nationalism of ideas

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From the July 27th 2024 edition

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Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

⇒Explore the edition.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}

More from China

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Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)

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They will go to great lengths to try

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China’s alarming sex imbalance

By 2027 one in six young Chinese men won’t be able to find a partner

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Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university

It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou

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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

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Источник: www.economist.com