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With revenue declining, its leaders must figure out how to collect more money
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CHAIRMAN MAO ZEDONG was a fan of meetings. “Whenever problems arise, call a meeting,” he wrote in 1949. “Place problems on the table.” Otherwise, he warned, they can drag on for years. A tableful of problems now beset China’s economy, including deflation, debt distress and demographic decline. A property slump has eroded confidence and hurt the land sales that help finance local governments. China also faces growing opposition from trading partners, who are limiting what they sell and buy from a country they now count as a geopolitical rival.
In response, China’s rulers have finally called a big meeting. On April 30th they announced that the party’s central committee will hold its third plenary session in July, gathering together over 370 committee members and their understudies. The third plenum, one of seven full meetings held over a typical five-year term, is traditionally devoted to reform and the economy. The session in 1978 enshrined China’s turn towards the market, making it one of the most consequential meetings in history. The most recent gathering in 2018 was also significant, for better or worse, paving the way for Xi Jinping, China’s ruler, to serve indefinitely as president.
The meeting in July will be more than six months later than usual. The long delay stirred some speculation that China’s rulers were divided about the country’s direction. But the procrastination might also have indicated the opposite: that China’s economic strategy is largely settled, leaving no urgent need for a plenum to resolve debates. Gabriel Wildau of Teneo, a consultancy, guesses the third plenum will be a “nothingburger”, reiterating Mr Xi’s ambition to refocus the economy on high-tech manufacturing.
But although the government’s economic aims appear largely settled, what remains unclear is how it will pay for them. Even as the state has become more intrusive in recent years, government revenues have retreated (see chart 1). In yuan terms, revenue declined by 2.3% in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier, the third quarterly fall in a row. That is the longest spell of falling revenues in data going back to 1990. At another big economic meeting in December, the party said it should plan a new round of fiscal and tax reforms. A third plenum could give those reforms more momentum.
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New sources of revenue are sorely needed. During China’s property boom, its local governments relied on land sales to supplement their budgets. But sales fell in value by over 13% last year and may never revive. The problem is not confined to property. The money flowing into China’s “general” budget (which excludes land sales and social-security contributions) exceeded 22% of GDP in 2015 but fell below 17% in the last four quarters. The erosion of China’s revenue base was one reason why the outlook for its credit rating was cut by Fitch, a ratings agency, last month.
What explains this erosion? One answer is slowing growth and the government’s efforts to revive it. China’s previous prime minister, Li Keqiang, who served from 2013 to 2023, was something of a “small-government Keynesian” in his response to weak demand. Most Keynesians believe that economic downturns can be offset by bigger budget deficits. The rarer breed of small-government Keynesian prefers to increase the deficit by cutting taxes rather than raising spending. “China has led the way in slashing taxes and fees,” Mr Li boasted in his annual speech to parliament in 2018. He made similar boasts in his next five speeches, too.
For now China can fill the gap between its spending ambitions and its diminished revenues by borrowing. Yields on its existing bonds are low. And in March it said it would issue new “ultra” long-term bonds in each of the next several years. By 2028, when another third plenum will fall due, China’s broad government debt could exceed 140% of GDP, according to IMF projections (see chart 2). That would exceed the figure for America, a country China often chides for fiscal irresponsibility.
Over the long term, China’s government will need other ways to mobilise resources. The third plenum in 2013 highlighted plans for a new property tax (a recurring levy on the value of people’s homes). Political momentum for such a tax seemed to be building in 2021. But it dropped off the legislative agenda last year amid fears that it would worsen the property downturn. “The idea is now pretty clearly dead,” argues Andrew Batson of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.
The other obvious source of revenue is the income tax. In the G7 group of rich countries these taxes are a mainstay, contributing over 37% of tax revenues on average. In China they contribute only 8.5%. Most people pay nothing at all. According to Sebastian Beer and Daniel Garcia-Macia of the IMF, the bottom 70% of China’s population escape any obligation thanks to a generous basic deduction. For higher earners, the rate rises steeply. But only a tiny fraction pay the top rate of 45%.
Instead of progressive income taxes, China relies on a regressive alternative. It requires employees and their employers to make hefty contributions to various social-insurance funds, including pensions. In many parts of the country, the combined contribution rate is even higher than the G7 average. But because contributions are capped, they fall less heavily on the highest paid. As a consequence, China’s tax schedule looks less like a staircase, rising step by step with higher incomes, and more like the undulating Great Wall (see chart 3).
Chart: The Economist
China’s peculiar pattern of revenue-raising is not an accident. It reveals something about the character and limits of China’s authoritarian regime. Modern states are defined by their power to tax. Their fiscal apparatus noses into every corner of the economy. But as states penetrate society, society tends to penetrate states, as Changdong Zhang of Peking University has put it. Taxpayers demand accountability and a say in how their money is used.
To avoid these social entanglements, China has remained a “half-tax state”, according to some scholars. It relies not on taking money directly from people’s pay cheques, but on land sales, contributions from companies and indirect taxation, such as value-added taxes. In this way it can disguise the fiscal burden it imposes. A smart king makes sure his “gifts are visible and his extractions are invisible”, according to the “Guanzi”, a Chinese philosophical text. The modern party has followed that ancient advice.
To extract more revenue, the IMF economists suggest that China gradually introduce a property tax and widen the reach of its carbon-emissions trading scheme. China could also increase the cap on social-security contributions, even as it lowers the contribution rate. More radically, the country could lower the basic deduction for income taxes from 60,000 yuan ($8,300) to 15,000. At that threshold, 80% of the population would pay something.
If China adopted these recommendations, it would move closer to becoming a full-tax state and making its extractions more visible. Such a transition would be fiscally prudent but politically risky. From the perspective of China’s ageing, authoritarian regime, the challenge is to figure out how to take more money from people without giving them more voice in return. ■
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China.css-2x8c4j{margin:0.875rem 0;}.css-2x8c4j .e12sz0jx0+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.el1rg701+.css-2x8c4j{margin-top:0;}.css-1aogxph{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);}.css-1aogxph s,.css-1aogxph del{-webkit-text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph b{font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-semibold);}.css-1aogxph i{font-style:italic;}.css-1aogxph sup{font-feature-settings:’sups’ 1;}.css-1aogxph sub{font-feature-settings:’subs’ 1;}.css-1aogxph u{text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph a{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;text-underline-offset:0.1875rem;}.css-1aogxph a:hover,.css-1aogxph a:focus,.css-1aogxph a:active{text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1aogxph a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:hover span{text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;}.css-1aogxph a:active{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}
This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “In need of a lift”
.css-1i1rou5 div>div:first-child{margin-left:var(–mb-spacing-lg);}.css-1i1rou5 ul>li:last-child{padding-bottom:0;border-bottom:0;}
China
May 4th 2024
- China mulls a bold test of taxation without representation
- Why China’s companies are recruiting their own militias
- The Chinese scientist who sequenced covid is barred from his lab
- China and America trade blame for a world on fire
.css-ra48xw{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);position:relative;}.css-duuyjs{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-box-pack:column;-ms-flex-pack:column;-webkit-justify-content:column;justify-content:column;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;text-align:center;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-lg);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-lg);}.css-s61v3v{border-radius:0.125rem;box-shadow:-0.125rem 0.125rem 0.25rem 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.4);margin-bottom:0.75rem;min-width:10rem;max-width:12rem;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-s61v3v{min-width:12rem;}}.css-s61v3v img{display:block;max-width:100%;}.css-std7t4{max-width:16rem;}.css-nba04v{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-figures);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-medium);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-3-leading);margin-bottom:0.25rem;}
From the May 4th 2024 edition
.css-exdolm{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-figures);font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-regular);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-leading);margin-bottom:1.5rem;}
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Explore the edition.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}
More from China
@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0 .e141dkbw0{padding-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0>hr+.e11kl3g90:last-of-type{padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0:nth-of-type(5){padding-bottom:1.5rem;}}.css-1os14tz .e3mhczn0 .e3mhczn0{margin-top:-0.25rem;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-1os14tz .e141dkbw0:nth-of-type(3) .e3mhczn0{margin-top:0;}}.css-114o6rp{display:grid;grid-auto-flow:row;grid-column-gap:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);grid-row-gap:2.75rem;grid-auto-columns:1fr;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:89.5rem;overflow:hidden;position:relative;grid-row-gap:1.5rem;grid-template-areas:”group1″ “line” “group2” “line2” “group3″;}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template:auto/repeat(12, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2” “line line line line line line line line line line line line” “group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3 group3″;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-114o6rp{grid-template-areas:”group1 group1 group1 group1 group2 group2 group2 group2 group2 group3 group3 group3″;}}.css-1f07iwu{grid-area:group1;position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;}.css-1f07iwu::after{background-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);content:”;height:100%;position:absolute;right:-1rem;right:calc(-1 * var(–ds-grid-gap));top:0;width:1px;}.css-1f07iwu:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-12lyffs{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;display:block;}.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-12lyffs,.e1ns5z760 .css-12lyffs{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-12lyffs{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-12lyffs{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-koo8ga{position:relative;float:none;width:100%;margin:0;padding:0;}.css-koo8ga img{display:block;}.css-koo8ga svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-koo8ga+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-koo8ga+style+.e1etum70{margin-top:0.5rem;}.css-fjl2tu{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-figures);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-4-leading);}.css-fjl2tu a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-fjl2tu a:hover,.css-fjl2tu a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-fjl2tu a:focus,.css-fjl2tu a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-fjl2tu a:active,.css-fjl2tu a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-fjl2tu a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-fjl2tu+.esimp700,.css-fjl2tu+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-fjl2tu+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)
.css-1p38euj{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);max-width:43.75rem;font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-body-1-leading);}
They will go to great lengths to try
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China’s alarming sex imbalance
By 2027 one in six young Chinese men won’t be able to find a partner
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Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university
It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou
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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence
The superpowers use soft and hard power
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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies
Grain pains are growing
Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”
The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt
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Источник: www.economist.com