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A fixation on security may cost the city in the long term

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“FROM CHAOS to order, from stability to prosperity.” That is Xi Jinping’s goal for Hong Kong. Ever since pro-democracy protests swept the city in 2019, China’s ruler has tried to reimpose control. In many ways he has succeeded. Today Hong Kong is less tumultuous than it was back then. The covid-19 pandemic, which saw the city close itself to the world, helped to calm things down. So have two draconian national-security laws, one imposed on the city by the central government in 2020 and another adopted by the local legislature this year. But the measures that have brought order, by striking fear into liberals, risk costing Hong Kong its prosperity by making it a less pleasant and predictable place to live and do business.

In the international firms that fill Hong Kong’s high-rise office blocks, the mood is far from buoyant. When the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong surveyed its members at the end of 2023, it found that 60% of respondents said they would be cautious about expanding their business in the city. Among the challenges cited were tensions between China and America and the slowing Chinese economy, but also overseas perceptions of Hong Kong. Nearly a third of respondents said they had been negatively affected by the older national-security law. Another survey, taken in June and July by the German Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, found that many of its members were expecting a worse political climate and more difficulty attracting foreign talent in the year ahead.

It is not all bad news. Most companies still report a positive business environment. In some ways the mood was worse in 2021 and 2022, when covid took a toll on the city. Optimists might note that the number of American companies operating there ticked up slightly last year to 1,273, after declining for four years in a row. But that number is down from a peak of 1,388 in 2012. And although foreign firms are not leaving Hong Kong en masse, many are shrinking their operations and moving their regional headquarters elsewhere.

Hong Kong’s proximity to the mainland had long been its biggest selling point. But now foreign executives and officials talk of it becoming more like the mainland. The city’s independent legal system, robust free press and civic freedoms are all being eroded by the central government. Three of the ten foreign justices on Hong Kong’s highest court have quit this year. One, Jonathan Sumption, wrote in the Financial Times: “The rule of law is profoundly compromised in any area about which the government feels strongly.” To which Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, responded, “The rule of law in Hong Kong is strong and will not change.”

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But a string of legal cases targeting liberal Hong Kongers has reinforced the concerns. The most recent involved Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam Shiu-tung, former editors of Stand News. The online outlet (now closed) published articles in support of democracy. On August 29th a judge ruled that during the protests of 2019, Stand News “became a tool to smear and vilify” the authorities. The convictions of Messrs Chung and Lam are a “clear signal” to the business world “that Hong Kong no longer behaves as a common-law jurisdiction”, said the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which brings together lawmakers from 33 countries.

On September 6th the American government chimed in, issuing an updated warning to firms about the potential dangers of operating in Hong Kong, mainly from the two security laws. “Businesses should be aware that the risks they face in [mainland China] are now increasingly present in Hong Kong,” it said. Days later America’s House of Representatives passed a bill that could close Hong Kong’s diplomatic offices in the country. Lawmakers have questioned whether Hong Kong deserves representation separate from China’s, given the city’s waning autonomy.

All this has darkened Hong Kong’s appeal relative to other entrepots in Asia, such as Singapore. At the same time, foreign firms that are hoping to operate in China see fewer benefits to setting up in Hong Kong, as opposed to Shanghai.

.css-izf7kx{width:21rem;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-izf7kx{float:left;margin-right:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);}.css-izf7kx .e1197rjj0{padding-top:0.375rem;}}Chart: The Economist

Hong Kong remains a business hub, but one increasingly made up of firms and workers from the mainland. In 2022 China overtook America as the country with the most regional headquarters in the city (see chart). One-fifth of the Americans living there moved out between 2021 and 2023. Along with them went droves of Hong Kongers. More than 150,000 of them have moved to Britain under a special immigration programme created by the British government after the first security law was introduced. Several thousand more have received permanent residence in Australia and Canada under similar schemes.

The population of Hong Kong fell from 7.5m in 2019 to 7.3m in 2022. But it rose back to 7.5m last year. The local government has introduced a new visa programme to attract overseas “top talent”. Of the 70,000 visas approved under the scheme so far, 95% went to people from the mainland. Foreign companies seem unimpressed by these new arrivals. Nearly half of the respondents to the American Chamber of Commerce survey said the availability of qualified staff in Hong Kong had decreased in the past year. Another problem is that many mainlanders see Hong Kong as a transition point to the outside world, says John Hu, a migration consultant.

Hong Kong still stands apart from its peers—and certainly from the mainland—when it comes to capital markets and investment banking. Though the city has become more Chinese, its financial workings are more like that of a Western country and, as a result, it has access to financial systems in the West. Its currency is pegged to the greenback and it remains the dominant offshore dollar funding centre in Asia. Financial firms are not leaving in large numbers—and probably will not, so long as Hong Kong continues to be the main route to investing in China. But some of these firms have cut jobs in recent years, as the volume of initial public offerings in the city has declined. And bankers worry that the Sino-American rivalry or Chinese influence will disrupt Hong Kong’s position as a global financial centre in the long term.

In the short term, the city’s real economy faces difficulties. Hong Kong’s GDP expanded in the second quarter by 3.3% year on year on the back of strong exports. But retail sales are down and bankruptcies are up. Hong Kong residents increasingly go to the nearby city of Shenzhen for shopping, reversing an old trend. Hong Kong’s property market is suffering, too, with the value and volume of home sales plummeting in recent months. The city’s tight global financial links have been a double-edged sword: its dollar peg has obliged it to maintain high interest rates despite the weak local economy.

At a town-hall meeting in August hosted by the city’s leaders, including Mr Lee, dozens of residents and industry representatives expressed economic gloom. Mr Lee acknowledged that businesses were facing challenges. “We estimate the economy will perform better next year,” he said, without specifying any future policies. Jasper Tsang, a founding member of Hong Kong’s largest pro-Beijing party, complains that the city “lacks political leadership”.

As the mood in Hong Kong dims, some legislators are proposing a novel solution. Promote a “panda economy”, they say, highlighting the birth of two cubs in the city. This would involve panda-themed hotel packages and panda-inspired art. The city might even change its mascot from a dragon to a panda, suggests a tourism association. Hong Kong’s problems are much bigger than all that. But perhaps a little distraction will help its residents bear up. ■

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Xi JinpingEconomyChinaHong Kong.css-2x8c4j{margin:0.875rem 0;}.css-2x8c4j .e12sz0jx0+*{margin-top:0.875rem;}.el1rg701+.css-2x8c4j{margin-top:0;}.css-1aogxph{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);font-family:var(–mb-typeface-sans);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-figures);line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-label-2-leading);}.css-1aogxph s,.css-1aogxph del{-webkit-text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration:line-through;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph b{font-weight:var(–mb-font-weight-semibold);}.css-1aogxph i{font-style:italic;}.css-1aogxph sup{font-feature-settings:’sups’ 1;}.css-1aogxph sub{font-feature-settings:’subs’ 1;}.css-1aogxph u{text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;}.css-1aogxph a{color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-20);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-thickness:0.0625rem;text-underline-offset:0.1875rem;}.css-1aogxph a:hover,.css-1aogxph a:focus,.css-1aogxph a:active{text-decoration-thickness:var(–mb-spacing-3xs);}.css-1aogxph a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:hover span{text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-1aogxph a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;}.css-1aogxph a:active{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-90);color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);text-decoration-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Stability, now what?”

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China

September 14th 2024

• →Can Xi Jinping take Hong Kong “from stability to prosperity”?
• →China is beating America in the nuclear-energy race
• →Why China banned international adoptions

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From the September 14th 2024 edition

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Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

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Источник: www.economist.com