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Xi Jinping’s aversion to stimulus is holding it back
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“AMBITIOUS” IS HOW most analysts are describing it. China’s GDP growth target, announced on March 5th, is the same as last year’s, at “around 5%” (see chart 1). But that pace of expansion will be harder to achieve this year. China will not enjoy the one-off benefits of removing strict anti-covid controls, as it did in 2023. And the government, though faced with grim economic news, is reluctant to crank up stimulus, as many businesspeople would like it to.
The government’s aims were presented by Li Qiang, the prime minister (pictured, right), in his “work report” to China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC). The body is a rubber-stamp affair, but its annual session provides a rare window onto what the Communist Party is thinking. Mr Li no doubt hoped to shore up confidence at home and reset the world’s conversation about a country in trouble. He did not succeed.
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image: The Economist
Mr Li spoke of “lingering risks and hidden dangers” to the economy. That is putting it mildly. Consumer and producer prices fell in January by 0.8% and 2.5% respectively, compared with a year earlier (see chart 2). A property crisis is now deep into its third year, with no end in sight. Some of China’s biggest trading partners have turned wary, limiting the country’s access to lucrative markets and high-end semiconductors. China’s stockmarket has lost about $4trn in value since its peak in 2021, despite the government’s recent efforts to arrest its slide. And consumer confidence remains near the lows to which it plunged during the pandemic-related lockdowns of 2022.
The government has a plan to fix things, just not one that is likely to work. To help meet the growth target, Mr Li said that the central government would aim for a headline budget deficit of 3% of GDP. It would also slightly increase the quota for “special bonds” issued by local governments that are spent largely on infrastructure. On top of that, the central government itself would sell 1trn yuan-worth ($140bn) of long-term special bonds this year, with more to come in the next few years. The increase in the fiscal deficit amounts to about 1% of GDP.
image: The Economist
This modest fiscal push will not be enough to keep deflation at bay, according to Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley. He expects the government to stimulate demand further later in the year, once it realises growth is falling short of its target. Some of that stimulus may come from China’s central bank. In a subtle change of wording from last year, the work report said that financing and the money supply would keep pace with the “projected” growth of the economy and consumer prices. In other words, the expansion of credit and money will not be allowed to weaken even if growth and inflation fall short of expectations.
A more lasting recovery for China’s economy would require a revival in consumers’ spirits and their spending. In a welcome move, Mr Li said the government would raise the minimum state pension by 20 yuan a month, a big increase relative to the paltry level of existing payments. Mr Li also briefly mentioned a scheme to encourage households to trade in old goods for new ones, perhaps something like the “cash for clunkers” initiative America introduced in 2009 to encourage people to replace ageing cars with more fuel-efficient ones. Shoppers’ rights would be strengthened through a “worry-free consumption” initiative, he added.
The government’s own worries also loomed large in Mr Li’s speech. China’s leaders are determined to liberate the country from its technological dependence on hostile foreign powers, such as America. The central government’s spending on science and technology in 2024 will increase by 10%, to over 370bn yuan. Mr Li noted that the money raised by China’s new long-term bonds would be spent on building the country’s “security capacity”, among other things. Outlays on national defence would increase by 7.2%. That is roughly in line with the nominal economic growth (ie, before adjusting for inflation) implied in the government’s fiscal projections. But with the economy stuttering and prices falling, few economists expect it to meet those projections.
Mr Li’s work report mentioned “risks” 24 times, up from 14 in last year’s speech. The word “security” also appeared more often than last year. As Mr Li delivered his report, the Philippines accused China’s coast guard of “aggressive actions” in the South China Sea, after Chinese vessels blocked a Philippine resupply mission to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. A day earlier, officials from the Maldives announced that they had signed a “military assistance” deal with China. When referring to Taiwan, the prime minister did not mention China’s official goal of achieving “peaceful reunification”. But this term has occasionally been missing from previous such reports. Mr Li did say that China would “promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations”, another oft-used phrase.
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No more questions
Appointed a year ago, Mr Li is regarded as a pragmatist who “gets” business and enjoys the trust of Xi Jinping, China’s ruler. He is also the weakest prime minister in communist China’s history, according to some observers. Further proof of that came on March 4th, when it was announced that this year’s congress would dispense with the customary closing press conference from the prime minister, an abrupt end to a tradition that dates back to the 1980s. It will not be reinstated except in “special circumstances”, according to a congress spokesman. Censors moved quickly to suppress comments by outraged netizens.
A year ago it was hoped that the selection of Mr Li would inject more rational thinking into China’s economic policymaking. But it is still Mr Xi setting the agenda. His concern about the downsides of stimulus, such as more debt and wasteful investment, is evident in the work report. And there is a gloomier takeaway for investors and businesspeople. For the past decade Mr Xi has strengthened state control over the economy, pursued state-led industrial policy and reined in big technology firms. Despite having a business-savvy prime minister at his side, none of that seems likely to change. ■
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China.css-dv5w6c{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-dv5w6c +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.e14gikav1+.css-dv5w6c{margin-top:0;}.css-19gx9y0{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–ds-color-london-85);color:var(–ds-color-london-35);}.css-19gx9y0 .ds-actioned-link{margin-right:0.625rem;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-19gx9y0 .ds-actioned-link{margin-left:0.625rem;margin-right:0;}}.css-19gx9y0 .ei4w8y0{margin-right:0.625rem;margin-top:0;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-19gx9y0 .ei4w8y0{margin-right:0;}}.css-19gx9y0 .ei4w8y0 .ds-actioned-link{margin-right:0;}.css-19gx9y0 >.eygoqsu0>*{padding:1rem 0;}.css-19gx9y0 >.eygoqsu0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–ds-color-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-19gx9y0 >.eygoqsu0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-15sn8g1{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-15sn8g1{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-15sn8g1{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-15sn8g1{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-9mn5vp{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;}ShareReuse this content.css-j50zk1{position:relative;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-j50zk1{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-j50zk1{display:block;}}.css-j50zk1:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}
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.css-138nfl4{font-family:var(–ds-type-system-serif-lining);font-size:var(–ds-type-scale-3);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–ds-type-leading-upper);}.css-138nfl4 a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–ds-color-london-5);display:block;}.css-138nfl4 a:hover,.css-138nfl4 a:hover{color:var(–ds-color-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-138nfl4 a:focus,.css-138nfl4 a:focus{background-color:var(–ds-color-chicago-95);color:var(–ds-color-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-138nfl4 a:active,.css-138nfl4 a:active{color:var(–ds-color-chicago-30);}.css-138nfl4 a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-138nfl4+.e7x1xmz0,.css-138nfl4+style+.e7x1xmz0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-138nfl4+.e7x1xmz0{margin-top:0;}
Is China a climate saint or villain?
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It is supercharging the green transition—while burning mountains of coal
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.css-a022oj{font-family:var(–ds-type-system-serif-lining);font-size:var(–ds-type-scale-2);font-weight:normal;line-height:var(–ds-type-leading-upper);}.css-a022oj a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–ds-color-london-5);display:block;}.css-a022oj a:hover,.css-a022oj a:hover{color:var(–ds-color-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-a022oj a:focus,.css-a022oj a:focus{background-color:var(–ds-color-chicago-95);color:var(–ds-color-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-a022oj a:active,.css-a022oj a:active{color:var(–ds-color-chicago-30);}.css-a022oj a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-a022oj+.e7x1xmz0,.css-a022oj+style+.e7x1xmz0{margin-top:0.5rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-a022oj+.e7x1xmz0{margin-top:0;}
Why China’s confidence crisis goes unfixed
In 2024, to acknowledge public gloom is to doubt Xi Jinping
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China’s satellites are improving rapidly. Its army will benefit
Watch out, American warships
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Источник: www.economist.com