«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»
Topic: Diplomacy Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Americas, Asia, and Middle East Tags: China, Donald Trump, Iran, Iran War, Operation Absolute Resolve, Operation Epic Fury, United States, and Venezuela What Do Trump’s Strikes in Venezuela and Iran Mean for China? March 7, 2026 By: Robert Burrell, and Arman Mahmoudian
Share
The Trump administration’s willingness to use military force to achieve political aims in Venezuela and Iran could shape its approach to China in the years to come.
In November 2024, we discussed the implications of President Donald Trump’s nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and what it meant for the US national security strategies in Venezuela, Iran, and ultimately China.
We contended that the Trump administration would initially focus on Venezuela, employing both “covert and overt” operations to undermine the regime and promote the restoration of democracy.
We assessed that the second priority would encompass “an influence campaign for change in Iran through movements akin to ‘Women, Life, Freedom.’”
Following the downfall of these two adversaries, we predicted “a broader and more nuanced crusade to influence the totalitarian behavior of [China’s] Communist Party by highlighting its human rights abuses.”
It is worth revisiting these predictions now because, with the launch of “Operation Absolute Resolve” against Venezuela on January 3 and “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran on February 28, at least two of them have come true.
Though both of us predicted the eventual collapse of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro through external and domestic pressures, the level of overt military force employed by the United States came as a surprise—suggesting that the Trump administration possesses a higher tolerance for risk than expected. Operation Absolute Resolve, the special operation aimed at ousting Maduro, was remarkable and showcased an exceptional and distinctly American capability.
This achievement in Venezuela, accomplished through military force, almost certainly affected the decision to use similar force to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran. In turn, how that campaign unfolds in the days and weeks to come will undoubtedly shape the Trump administration’s strategy toward China as 2027 approaches.
Marco Rubio Is Guiding Trump’s Foreign Policy
Rubio has been a strong supporter of Iran’s domestic resistance to the Islamic Republic for decades. During President Barack Obama’s first term, Rubio criticized him for failing to come to the aid of Iranian protesters during the 2009 “Green Revolution,” the first of the major demonstrations against autocratic clerical rule and in favor of representative government. Since 2015, he has sponsored legislation to counter Iran, including countering China’s evasion of Iran-related sanctions in 2023.
When Iranian protests emerged in December 2025, the Trump administration’s response was predictable. In January 2026, Trump promised to support the protesters if the regime used violence against them. The regime proceeded to murder over 30,000 demonstrators, calling Trump’s bluff and laying the groundwork for the ongoing Operation Epic Fury.
Like Venezuela, Iran is a petro-state, and influence over the transit and sale of its oil could provide Washington with meaningful leverage. In both cases, petroleum exports have been redirected primarily toward China as a way to circumvent sanctions. Moreover, similar to the US willingness to engage with interim president and Chavista figure Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela when expedient, Trump appears open to striking pragmatic arrangements with elements of Iran’s current ruling establishment—provided they comply with American demands.
There are, however, significant differences. Iranian exports are far more significant than Venezuelan, representing about 14 percent of China’s total requirements. If the United States were to exert control of substantial oil flows, either directly or through a friendly regime, that leverage could intensify strategic tensions between the United States and China.
Additionally, the collapse of anti-American governments in Venezuela, Syria, and now potentially Iran has significantly reshaped the strategic landscape. These developments will gradually free US resources and attention from protracted confrontations in Latin America and the Middle East, enabling Washington to concentrate more directly on major international competitors like China and Russia rather than being consumed by regional quagmires.
What Do Trump’s Military Actions Mean for China?
There are many outcomes in Iran which could come to pass, including the Islamic Republic’s regime maintaining a grip on power. However, if change in governance comes to pass, the priority of US national security strategy will almost certainly shift to China next.
In February 2025, Dr. Burrell released a publication titled “What the Red Dragon Fears: Assessing Resistance in China.” China is home to numerous active resistance movements that receive diplomatic, informational, military, and/or economic assistance from the United States. This support encompasses (quietly) advocating for Taiwan independence, drawing attention to ongoing ethnic cleansing in Tibet, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Inner Mongolia, and promoting freedom in Hong Kong. Rubio is a staunch advocate for these movements, and implemented various legislative measures supporting these during his tenure in the Senate.
The loss of Iran and Venezuela as proxies for China will diminish Beijing’s global influence. As the world’s largest importer of oil, China faces a significant vulnerability. We predict that the Trump administration will apply pressure on the Chinese Communist Party to halt its aggressive actions against domestic resistance movements and to stop its diplomatic, economic, and military operations directed at Taiwan. However, although the administration has employed military force in Venezuela and Iran, we do not expect similar means contemplated for direct use against China, given China’s far greater capacity to respond in kind.
In summary, we did predict US actions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as their prioritization—but not the degree to which the Trump administration was willing to use force. Going forward in Iran, we expect the Trump administration to mirror the tactics it has used in Venezuela, with the potential for US leverage over oil exports in both nations. If this gamble on Iran pays off, we double down on our prediction that the next US focus will shift towards addressing human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party, armed with greater leverage over the oil trade.
About the Authors Robert Burrell and Arman Mahmoudian
Dr. Robert Burrell is a senior research fellow with the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida. From 2020 to 2024, he taught irregular warfare at the Joint Special Operations University, and earlier served as US Special Operations Command’s Editor-in-Chief for irregular warfare doctrine. A retired Marine with multiple combat tours, Dr. Burrell has spent 12 years living and working across Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand, plus a diplomatic tour at the US Embassy in Australia. He holds a PhD in History from the University of Warwick, and master’s degrees from San Diego State University and the US Naval War College.
Dr. Arman Mahmoudian is a research fellow at the USF Global and National Security Institute. He is also an adjunct professor at the University of South Florida’s Judy Genshaft Honors College, teaching courses on Russia, the Middle East, and International Security. He holds a PhD in Politics and International Affairs from the University of South Florida. He earned his Master’s in International Relations in Russia and his Bachelor’s in Law in Iran. In addition to his professional roles and publications, he is a member of the editorial board at the Joint Special Operations University. His research and commentary on Middle Eastern and Russian affairs have been featured in leading outlets, including Foreign Policy, The National Interest, the Stimson Center, the Atlantic Council, the Gulf International Forum, and other platforms. Follow him on LinkedIn and X @MahmoudianArman.
The post What Do Trump’s Strikes in Venezuela and Iran Mean for China? appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org