«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»
Topic: Naval Warfare, and Oil and Gas Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: Donald Trump, Iran, Oil Crisis, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and United States Why Trump’s Iran War Could Cause an Economic Crisis January 30, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
Share
Trump’s threats of a full-scale war against Iran could lead to skyrocketing oil prices—and bring economic calamity to the United States.
The American naval buildup around the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with the subsequent buildup of US air assets throughout the Middle East—with Israel engaged in a similar buildup of forces—indicates that the strike window for the Israeli-American military alliance to strike Iran is now open. It’s really more of a question of when, rather than, if, the Americans and their Israeli partners will initiate hostilities.
This Time, the War Is About Regime Change in Iran
Crucially, unlike the last round of hostilities last summer during the 12-Day War, this new round of fighting will be aimed at toppling the Islamic regime in Tehran.
That changes a number of things. During the last war, Iran made clear that it sought a limited engagement with America and Israel. But this time, if the clerics consider it an existential struggle, they will go for broke. Indeed, Tehran has already made clear its intention to smash both Israeli and American targets in the region. Iranian leaders have furthered their intentions to retaliate by cautioning their twitchy Arab neighbors that they, too, might fall under attack if the US-Israeli strikes directed against the regime in Tehran are as brutal as President Donald Trump is making them sound like the strikes against Iran will be.
So unlike the last round of fighting, in which the Iranian response to the US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran were relatively muted, Iran’s retaliation will not only be relegated to targets within Iran and US military bases throughout the region. It will likely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that separates southern Iran from neighboring Saudi Arabia—and is considered to be one of the major global oil chokepoints. In other words, major trade and energy flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz on their way to larger water bodies beyond.
Iran’s Real Weapon: The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz must be transited in order for goods, such as oil and liquefied natural gas, to more quickly (and cheaply) reach global markets. If it were to be blockaded, as Tehran is threatening, the disruptions to the flow of global oil would spike prices.
Of course, one former US Navy submarine commander assures me that the Navy likely has at least one submarine standing by near the Strait of Hormuz whose crew has been training and preparing to reopen the Strait from the moment that Iran shuts it down. Nevertheless, fighting over the Hormuz—even for a short time—will spike the price of oil globally. And even if America is largely self-sufficient in its oil consumption, prices at the pump will not be immune to these trends.
Oil Shocks Can Lead to Recession
The worst-case scenario is that the American economy essentially implodes in 2026, partly as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and spike in energy prices. Oil could explode to around $90-$130/barrel if the war results in a protracted blockade. That, combined with a weak US dollar and gold and silver (and other commodities) at record highs, could lead to classic stagflation—soaring inflation plus stalled growth, combined with rising unemployment. We’re talking a replay of the 1970s OPEC crisis, but on steroids.
By one estimate, every $10 jump in crude adds around 0.4 percent to inflation, likewise subtracting around 0.4 percent from gross domestic product (GDP). So, that’s a 1.6-2.4 percent inflation drag—and a similar hit to overall GDP. That’s recession territory. It’s also a political disaster for the Trump administration, with only ten months before the upcoming midterm elections are set to occur.
With gas spiking in price, American households will lose 10-20 percent of their real spending power on the increased cost of fuel, heating, groceries, and shopping. Inflation only spirals from there.
Because the US dollar is weak right now, imports will cost more. The dollar will buy less, and everything foreign-sourced will cost more. This is known as a “cost-push” nightmare. And with gold and silver screaming higher and higher, investors are fleeing fiat currency, hedging inflation and debasement fears, sending capital out of the US economy. The panic is contagious, stunting further economic activity.
Meanwhile, the stock markets can be expected to tank. Similarly, bond yields likely spike, meaning higher borrowing costs. US debt servicing costs go stratospheric as a result.
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve shocked the world when it chose to keep interest rates at where they were. In this wartime scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, the Fed will become trapped: it could increase interest rates in order to fight inflation, but that would only deepen recession. Conversely, cutting rates would then fuel even more inflation. Any decision is a bad one—and policy paralysis sets in.
Again, all this is occurring as a military campaign is ongoing in the Middle East and a wild midterm election is underway in which the opposition political party is already slated to enjoy immense gains.
An Iran War Won’t Be Over Quickly
Duration matters.
In the previous round of warfare with Iran, the strikes lasted less than two weeks—with the American strikes going on for just an evening targeting suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. The overall impact on the markets was fairly small.
But this time will be different. There aren’t many other nuclear weapons sites to bomb. And Trump has made it clear his reasoning for escalating against Iran has more to do with their treatment of protesters and the overall nature of their regime rather than the very serious nuclear weapons threat to the United States and the region.
Trump has intimated that his buildup off the coast of Iran is mirroring the buildup of US naval assets off the coast of Venezuela. That buildup took several months, saw around 25 percent of the US Navy’s fighting power deployed over that time, and resulted in a decisive, pinprick strike against the head of the Venezuelan regime, Nicolas Maduro.
So it seems that the US military campaign directed against Iran will not be short, sharp, and small as was both the US strikes in Iran and Venezuela. It will be a sustained campaign aimed at toppling the Islamists of Iran. Thus, one can expect the Iranians to prepare to wage a similar war—meaning they could conceivably blockade the Strait of Hormuz for a much more protracted time than what most US military analysts believe.
The Iranian Navy, such as it is, possesses a fleet of around 25 submarines, including three Kilo-class subs and 23 domestically produced Ghadir-class midget submarines. These submarines, while no match in a head-on fight with the US Navy, are perfectly suited for lying low in the Persian Gulf and harassing shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. So long as Iran is intent on doing that, the price of shipping anything through that vital waterway increases, passing costs on to consumers.
Iran has a fleet of small, fast-attack boats that are operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These, too, would likely be used for harassment, mining, and swarm tactics against larger vessels.
Speaking of mining, Iranian sea mines are a real concern. With an estimated 5,000-6,000 naval mines, these nightmarish weapons could be deployed in the strait to complicate global shipping—and threaten US Navy warships operating in the tight quarters of the strait.
Lastly, using the relatively cramped geographical spaces of the strait, Iranian coastal defense networks will likely employ anti-ship missiles—among them the Khalij-e Fars and Hormuz-1/2 ballistic missile systems and the C-802 Noor Cruise missiles (alongside numerous drone swarms).
Again, the US Navy insists that they will be able to manage such a contingency. But even a temporary closure will cause massive damage to the economy—and undermine whatever political order exists in the United States. Nevertheless, it appears that Trump is completely committed to this course of action—and the chips will simply have to fall where they may.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert is the host of The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Lucas Parker.
The post Why Trump’s Iran War Could Cause an Economic Crisis appeared first on The National Interest.
Источник: nationalinterest.org