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Topic: Trade Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Asia Tags: China, Donald Trump, Global South, Trade Wars, and United States China Has Beaten America’s Trade Warriors. Here’s the Proof. January 22, 2026 By: Brandon J. Weichert
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China posted a jaw-dropping $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025—most of which came from the Global South, rather than the United States.
Amid various other major events in global news—large-scale unrest in Iran, the stunning tactical raid directed against the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, and the ongoing spat between the United States and Denmark (and other European nations) over Greenland—one item has gone virtually unnoticed. China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported a $1.189 trillion trade surplus for 2025—meaning that the total value of its exports for the year exceeded its imports by that amount.
Is China Collapsing? Not Exactly
Most assessments claim that the surplus was derived from emerging markets—the Global South—where Beijing has spent an inordinate amount of time cultivating relationships and expanding its presence via trade and geoeconomic policies.
Yes, Chinese leaders spent years deftly cultivating their tight relations with the Global South. It helped them prepare for when they expected President Donald Trump to initiate the next phase of his onerous trade war. Remember, in Trump’s first nonconsecutive term, Beijing was caught off-guard by Trump’s brute force approach to trade warfare.
That was then. China spent the intervening years making its system less susceptible to the kind of aggressive trade policies that future American administrations might enact—realizing that Trump’s hawkishness during his first term was most likely going to be a trend that future American leaders followed, rather than an anomaly.
So, when Trump returned to office and initiated his trade war against China, Beijing simply prioritized the Global South.
To be clear, the notion of utilizing tariffs and other protectionist barriers to restore America’s industrial infrastructure and make China play fairer in the global trade game were justified, and perhaps necessary, moves by the Trump administration. Yet the way in which Trump has haphazardly enacted these policies, and the failure to account the kind of countermoves the Chinese would make in retaliation, have led America to disaster.
The Global South Is China’s Trade Escape Hatch
For example, apparently no one in power realized the fact that, since 2018, only 14-15 percent of China’s total exports go to the United States. The rest of China’s exports—the vast majority—went to the Global South.
This information is hardly a state secret. But American leaders nevertheless blundered ahead with a ham-fisted trade war, substituting data and discipline for ideology and a plucky attitude.
China has made itself resilient to America’s tariffs. Around two-thirds of China’s nearly $1.2 trillion trade surplus is now being invested by private companies, individuals, and state-linked lenders into overseas assets rather than being kept in state reserves.
China’s manufacturing productivity has exploded alongside greater technological sophistication. At the same time, there has been relatively weak domestic demand. That weak demand domestically, coupled with excess capacity within China, has led some to argue that China’s better days are behind it. But that remains to be seen, especially considering that China’s economy posted strong GDP growth numbers last year.
In any case, once the Trump team engaged in the trade war with China, Beijing immediately cut the US off from rare earth minerals.
What could the Americans do about this? Not much.
China Understood Its Trade Vulnerabilities—and Fixed Them
As my colleague, Dan Collins—a man with decades of experience running high-end factories in China—explained, the Chinese spent the last several years shoring up their vulnerabilities in anticipation for a renewed round of trade war with the Americans.
One of the few levers the Americans had was the fact that the Chinese relied upon the United States for ammonium, a key precursor for rare earth mineral production and other important industrial practices that sustain China’s gargantuan economy. Well, the Chinese essentially ran a Manhattan Project to make China self-reliant in the area of ammonium production. It worked. China has not needed the US for ammonium since 2022.
Conversely, no one in America’s capital understood that China could truly complicate the world economy by imposing strict export restrictions on silver. But China doesn’t control all the world’s silver. Surely the United States could just buy it from somewhere else?
Yes, that’s the goal. But it’s one of those easier-said-than-done things. Especially when there are a multitude of factors working against such a project—notably in the near-term. Weaning off Chinese-controlled rare earth mineral sources or silver is a decadal project. Not something done in the remaining 34 months of a controversial presidency.
The moment China played that hand, the Trump administration folded. Without explicitly announcing it, the Trump team is clearly reversing course on their stance toward China vis-à-vis trade.
Seemingly overnight, Trump reversed many of the bans on the selling of high-end computer chips to China, a ban that was imposed during Trump’s first term and carried through the much-maligned single term of Joe Biden’s presidency. Trump has spoken glowingly about reverting to a friendlier relationship with Beijing in trade, too.
Trump Isn’t Playing “5-D Chess”—He’s Retreating
These reversals are not the product of Trump playing five-dimensional chess. They’re the result of Trump realizing that in a tit-for-tat with China on trade, the US position in 2025 and 2026 is much weaker than it was in 2019 and 2020, when Trump really went hard at China.
Naturally, there were many naysayers in the West dumping all over the news.
The most common statement I heard surrounding this news was that China routinely lies about their data. No doubt there have been instances where China does manipulate their economic data. But, in the specific case of the trade surplus data, this argument is specious.
Experts don’t just take the Chinese government’s word for their claims. They treat China’s customs figures (including that $1.2 trillion trade surplus) as part of a larger empirical mosaic. Those experts then validate the data against multiple independent sources and indicators.
Consistency with partner country data, freight, and shipping trends, along with broader macro indicators, give economists reasonable confidence that the reported surplus reflects real economic patterns, even if the exact precision isn’t there and some variances exist.
Beijing’s trade surplus is a reminder of how the Americans lost the trade war to China. Of course, there will likely be future trade wars with China. But this recent iteration was clearly lost by Washington. China successfully reversed its dependence on the US going back to 2018. Now, the Chinese economy is mostly tariff-proof—and Trump, or a future administration, must remember this before launching another ill-fated trade war.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / carlos110.
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Источник: nationalinterest.org