«Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента»

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New ideas for new people in an old country

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In the northern Chinese city of Hohhot, Ms Liu and her colleagues at a baby-goods store are constantly having to think of new ways to boost business. Recently they, and many of their competitors, have started to give out baby-formula samples at the entrance of a maternity hospital around the corner. Their city, capital of the region of Inner Mongolia, may be home to two of the world’s largest dairy companies, but the people of Hohhot are making fewer babies to drink that milk.

China, like South Korea, is facing a dramatic decline in its fertility rate (see chart). Last year the country’s population shrank for the third consecutive year and the marriage rate plummeted by 21% to a record low. The rapidly ageing population is reliant on an ever-smaller workforce. That has the state worried, as it struggles to turn around a slowing post-covid economy. Attempts to tackle the problem have taken on a new urgency. Leaders for the first time promised child-care subsidies and free pre-school education in the annual work report at China’s parliament last month, to try to further encourage procreation.

.css-izf7kx{width:21rem;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-izf7kx{float:left;margin-right:var(–mb-responsive-grid-gutter);}.css-izf7kx .e1197rjj0{padding-top:0.375rem;}}Chart: The Economist

While the central government works out details of its fertility-boosting plan, local governments have stepped in. Two provinces and at least 20 cities, including Hohhot, have offered child-care subsidies, typically larger for the second and third children.  There are signs that some of the policies might be having some impact. Tianmen, a small city in central China, has gone all out, introducing packages totalling up to 280,000 yuan ($38,000), including maternity leave and housing subsidies.

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In 2024 the city recorded a 17% increase in births after eight years of decline (though the baby boom also coincided with migrants coming back to the city and the arrival of the Year of the Dragon, considered auspicious for births). Tianmen recognised that, for many women, having children is not just about the money. It even established a system to promote the career advancement of parents with two or three children.

In Hohhot, however, the uptake so far appears weak. On March 13th, with fanfare in national media, the city announced one of the biggest cash-for-kids schemes in the country. Mothers will now be paid 10,000 yuan for a first child, 50,000 yuan over five years for a second and 100,000 yuan over ten years for a third. That third-child reward is double the city’s average annual salary. But Hohhot is not offering much beyond the cash payments, and at one local office that processes subsidy registrations an employee said that they have received only seven or eight inquiries in the month since the policy announcement.

Ms Liu at the baby store, who is 35 and has one child, said she would like to have a second if she had more money, but the new incentives do not offset the lack of child-care support and the high costs of raising children in a competitive environment. “The policy might change the minds of people on the fence about having kids, but people like me won’t consider it,” she says.

For Ms Wu, a 29-year-old civil servant about to give birth to her first child, the 10,000 yuan “adds flowers to the brocade” and could help with her mortgage or car loan, but “50,000 yuan is not going to cover the costs of a second child”. It costs high-income families 1.3m yuan to raise a child to adulthood, estimates YuWa Population Research Institute, a think-tank in Beijing. The figure is more like 130,000 yuan for low-income families. Wang Feng of the University of California, Irvine, thinks Hohhot’s policy will not “make a dent” in the city’s population decline. “Babies cannot be bought,” he says. “The cost is lifelong and it’s not just monetary.”

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The culture shifts

Mr Wang does, however, believe that financial support for young families is worthwhile. Child-care subsidies are targeted cash transfers aligned with another national priority: increasing domestic consumption. Applying Hohhot standards nationwide could see as much as 95bn yuan transferred to families in the first year, equal to about 0.07% of gdp, reckons Citi, a bank. But widespread roll-out would require more resources from the central government, as cash-strapped local governments may struggle to foot the bill.

Cultural changes also dim the allure of such payouts. Walking her dog in a Hohhot park, Ms Guo says she devoted her golden years to child-rearing, placing her own aspirations on hold. The 50-year-old told her two daughters to prioritise their own happiness, warning them not to get married or have kids at the cost of their own well-being. Once you have children, “you can’t shove them back in,” she says. Finally carving out more time for yoga training, she has made clear that she will not look after any grandchildren, rejecting the expectations long imposed on Chinese grandparents. Hohhot’s announcement may have sent dairy producers’ stock prices up, but don’t expect the baby formula to be flying off the shelves just yet. ■

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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Oh, baby”

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China

April 26th 2025

• →Amid a trade war, Xi Jinping may be purging China’s armed forces
• →China’s $38,000 baby formula
• →China’s fine diners switch from American to Aussie beef

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From the April 26th 2025 edition

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But replacing more complex imports is proving tricky

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China’s propagandists preach defiance in the trade war with America

The public seems on board, for now

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Chinese officials are encouraging office workers not to work so hard

More free time means more consumption, they hope

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China hawks are losing influence in Trumpworld, despite the trade war

“Restrainers” are taking over from “primacists”

Why are Chinese soldiers fighting in Ukraine?

They have been showing up on both sides of the battlefield throughout the war

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Источник: www.economist.com