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A good start, but it could get worse quickly

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CHINA’S STATE media were not impressed by Donald Trump’s first days back in charge of the country’s great geopolitical rival. Xinhua, the official news service, grumbled that Mr Trump’s policies have become more “unilateral and hegemonic”. It cited a Cuban researcher who said the president’s abrupt reversal of his predecessor’s policies weakened America’s “national credibility and international trustworthiness”. A scholar from Mexico, quoted in the same article, complained of America’s rising expansionism.

But don’t be misled by the aggrieved tone of this commentary. China’s leaders must be quietly satisfied with Mr Trump’s start. The new president did not impose fresh tariffs on day one, as some in Beijing had feared. China’s currency did not weaken. And though the Chinese stockmarket wobbled, it did not plunge.

The inaugurations of American presidents are normally attended by China’s ambassador in Washington or an official of similar stature. This year, though, China sent Han Zheng, its vice-president. He will have heard Mr Trump promise to “tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens”. But China was not singled out. Indeed, Mr Trump mentioned the country only in passing—to claim that it was operating the Panama Canal. (A private Hong Kong firm holds the contract to run a port at both ends of the waterway.)

Prior to the ceremony, Mr Han met Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla, which makes more than half of its electric vehicles in Shanghai. China hopes the businessman (who was given a prominent seat at the inauguration and heads the new Department of Government Efficiency) will be a voice for pragmatism in Sino-American relations and a counterweight to the China hawks in Mr Trump’s cabinet.

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• .css-195326x{position:relative;width:100%;margin-top:0;overflow:hidden;}.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}@media (min-width: 22.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 60rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:-0.25rem;margin-bottom:0;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.eeawncf0 .css-195326x,.e1ns5z760 .css-195326x{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}}.e1ft9m2r0 .css-195326x{margin-left:0.75rem;margin-top:0;}@media (max-width:29.9375rem){.e1ft9m2r0 .css-195326x{padding-top:0.375rem;}}.css-5misog{position:relative;margin:0.25rem 0 0 1.5rem;padding:0;float:right;width:33%;}.css-5misog img{display:block;}.css-5misog svg{bottom:0;display:block;left:0;position:absolute;width:15%;}.css-5misog+.exn4l0u0{margin-top:0;}.css-5misog+.e9vcwtd0{margin-top:0;}.css-5misog+.e1etum70{margin-top:0;}.css-apziln{font-family:var(–mb-typeface-serif);font-size:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-size);font-variant:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-figures);font-weight:500;line-height:var(–mb-typestyle-title-1-leading);}.css-apziln a{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);display:block;}.css-apziln a:hover,.css-apziln a:hover{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-apziln a:focus,.css-apziln a:focus{background-color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-95);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-5);outline:none;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-apziln a:active,.css-apziln a:active{color:var(–mb-colour-base-chicago-30);}.css-apziln a::before{bottom:0;content:”;display:block;left:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;position:absolute;right:0;text-indent:-999em;top:0;white-space:nowrap;z-index:1;}.css-apziln+.esimp700,.css-apziln+style+.esimp700{margin-top:0.25rem;}.e1p220na0 .css-apziln+.esimp700{margin-top:0;}
  

  Could China and India become friends?

• 
  

  Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)

• 
  

  China’s alarming sex imbalance

⇒All of our China coverage

Mr Musk has even been rumoured as a potential buyer of TikTok, the popular video app owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company. Mr Trump is keen to save the app from a law which prohibits social networks controlled by “foreign adversaries” . On his first day in office he delayed the ban, hoping that a sale can be worked out. China’s leaders seem newly open to the idea, perhaps because it gives them a bargaining chip. “Beijing could frame its approval for a sale as a generous favour to the US side,” noted Gabriel Wildau of Teneo, a consultancy.

China may have found other crumbs of comfort in Mr Trump’s first day. His decision to withdraw from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change will make it harder to fight future pandemics and global warming. That hurts everybody. But it also cedes leadership and influence to China within the international frameworks that past American presidents helped to build. By the cold logic of great-power rivalry, America’s loss is China’s gain.

Leaders in Beijing may also see new opportunities to drive a wedge between America and its allies. Mr Trump threatened the European Union, Canada and Mexico with big new tariffs. That will introduce tension within the Western bloc of countries, which may redound to China’s geopolitical advantage.

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The phoney war

China still has much to fear from the new administration. On his second day in office Mr Trump repeated an earlier threat to impose an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, perhaps as soon as February 1st. The hike is supposed to punish China for failing to stem the flow of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid made from chemicals that often originate in the country. Mr Trump’s words prompted a brief fall in China’s stockmarket.

But the 10% threat is manageable compared with the 60% tariffs he talked about on the campaign trail. Those higher levies will not be imposed for months (if at all), it seems. Mr Trump has decided to wait until his economic team has carried out reviews of America’s trade policy, including an assessment of the “phase one” trade deal he struck with Mr Xi at the end of 2019.

There is no compelling need for such a study. The results of the phase-one deal are hardly a secret: China fell conspicuously short of its commitments to buy American products, food and energy, partly because of disruptions inflicted by the covid-19 pandemic. The real reasons for delay may be different. Mr Trump presumably wants to wait for his economic officials to get their feet under the table before launching another trade war. And he may not want to interrupt the stockmarket rally that greeted his victory in November.

Whatever the reason, Xi Jinping and China’s other leaders will welcome the reprieve. But the flurry of decrees and cavalier comments from Mr Trump in recent days is a reminder of his unpredictable governing style. One of the lessons from the trade war he launched in 2018 is that uncertainty about tariffs can be as damaging to the economy as the tariffs themselves. Businessmen will wait and see where Mr Trump lands before making a decision about where to build a new plant. That hesitation will interrupt the flow of investment and the jobs and incomes it provides.

For now China’s leaders are probably taking some pleasure in Mr Trump’s treatment of TikTok, his hostility towards allies and the lack of tariffs on Chinese goods. But if the president’s first term is any indication, things can change quickly. ■

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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “A good start for China”

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China

January 25th 2025

• →How (un)popular is China’s Communist Party?
• →The early days of the Trump administration, as viewed from China
• →It’s a good time to be an astrologer in China

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From the January 25th 2025 edition

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Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

⇒Explore the edition.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0.875rem;}.css-v7aorn +.eq1asik0{margin-top:3rem;padding-bottom:0;}.el1rg701+.css-v7aorn{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71{position:relative;border-bottom:0;border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);color:var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-35);}.css-9ejc71 .ebxshaw0{margin-top:0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*{padding:var(–mb-spacing-md) 0;}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0.0625rem solid var(–mb-colour-greyscale-london-85);}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0>*:nth-of-type(2){border-top:0;}}.css-9ejc71 >.e5z0ibw0 .e5z0ibw0{gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}.css-yb4x8x{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-align:stretch;-ms-flex-align:stretch;align-items:stretch;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:flex-start;justify-content:flex-start;}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}}@media (min-width: 37.5rem){.css-yb4x8x{-webkit-box-pack:end;-ms-flex-pack:end;-webkit-justify-content:flex-end;justify-content:flex-end;}}.css-1j1j36d{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-flex-wrap:wrap;-webkit-flex-wrap:wrap;-ms-flex-wrap:wrap;flex-wrap:wrap;row-gap:0.6rem;-webkit-column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);column-gap:var(–mb-spacing-sm);}ShareReuse this content.css-169lzn0{position:relative;-webkit-align-self:auto;-ms-flex-item-align:auto;align-self:auto;display:none;}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:9;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-start:13;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:13;}}@media (min-width: 89rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-column-end:17;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-start:1;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{grid-row-end:span 4;}}@media (min-width: 80rem){.css-169lzn0{display:block;}}.css-169lzn0:last-child::after{height:0;}.css-1y1zooy{display:inline;}.css-1y1zooy >*+*{margin-top:2rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:only-child{margin-top:1.25rem;}.css-1y1zooy >*:last-child{position:-webkit-sticky;position:sticky;top:1.5rem;}.css-mqgbir{margin-top:6rem;}.css-mqgbir .ds-section-headline{margin-bottom:1rem;}

More from China

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Chinese authorities try to stop parents gaming the exam system (again)

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They will go to great lengths to try

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Behind DeepSeek lies a dazzling Chinese university

It models itself on Stanford, and is in the tech hotspot of Hangzhou

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Panama symbolises the Sino-American struggle for influence

The superpowers use soft and hard power

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Tensions with the West are fuelling China’s anxiety about food supplies

Grain pains are growing

Hail China’s new “ice-and-snow economy”

The country is betting on winter sports and tourism to boost growth in its rustbelt

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Источник: www.economist.com